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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (45681)	1/23/2009 4:55:40 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217860

Forget financial, look to the real world. Real world where goods and services are produced and exchanged and which generate jobs. I illustrate that with Brazil’s technical depression. Abrupt jump in the breaks on the 4th quarter to cut down stock of products. That because the industry 3rd quarter was working full steam. Cars weights heavily on the GDP. Dec./Jan. Drop in tax to empty carmakers’ yards. 1st quarter 09 is transition to new crusing speed. As momentum vanished, and yards and warehouses clear, stocks have to replenished as industry adjusts to new level of: confidence, credit availability, interest rates, BRL exchnage rate and better visibility on the mayhem. That takes care of the internal market. Exports is a different story. Industry has cut in the export segment: Vale operating only 2 out of 9 pellet plants. Sadia throttled down frozen chicken produced for exports. That points to a similar situation in the world markets: They had goods on the docks, on ships, clearing customs, and warehouses. The mid 2008 momentum no longer there, the market slammed in the brakes to see where the new level will be. The whole world market is looking to see where that new level will be. They are looking to see: Which segment is going to vanish, which is going to just slow down, which will be unafected, which is going to increase and which new ones are going to be created. In the developed world: cars, clothing, holidays, eateries, air travel is surely going to slow and that will percolate to commercial real estate and advertising, printing media... Oil is has been trying to do a flight 1549, landing on the Hudson. Namely stocking up crude even in empty Budweiser cans. That has -so far- avoided oil to go to couple of bucks a barrel bankrupting the speculators, thus evening it out the price variation. That oil stored still has to reach the market and once it does, it will keep the price tamed for a good period of time. Where do we go from here? That’s the 50c question!