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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sepku who wrote (6138)	10/23/1997 11:19:00 PM
From: Eduardo Canto	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Congratulations to all CYMI owners! Here's a quick story for you to understand how dumb and overpaid most analysts are(95% of them): Back in 1990 my team took a very significant position in a new company called EMC(EMC-NYSE) around $4.The stock had the potential to steal IBM's storage market share very quickly,the new product SYMMETRIX was delayed for one quarter and the analyst for Merryl then(I won't say her name)made the stock a sell and it went from $11 in the morning to $5 by closing time.My crystal ball told me she was wrong and we avg.down.From '90-93 the stock was up 20 fold.We became rich and she no longer works there.Analysts are paid to be wrong(stocks report better/worst but almost never in line),if they had any skills they would trade for themselves like us. Regards, EC PS-Forgive my spelling errors,I'm watching bball

To: sepku who wrote (6138)	10/23/1997 11:36:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 25960

the analyst asked "what if Komatsu and Lambda develop better lasers, what then?" Uh, well, Mr. Analyst, what if your wife decided to give you a divorce in the morning and you weren't aware of any problems, declared or otherwise? Or what if someone finally developed a better toilet - one that sucks the waste right out of you, no mess, no fuss, no need for tissue. Where did they find this guy to ask this question? What if Komatsu develops a better laser, what then? I think I'll go home and cry guy, and take my red wagon with me. What is a company supposed to answer to a nit brained question like this? What can anyone answer? What they should have said is: (a) we currently have 90% of the world market share for DUV lasers (b) VLSI projected that as many as 1200 DUV lasers would be needed in 1999 alone, not to mention a projected demand up to 700 for 1998 (c) backlog stands at $116 million, approximately 220 lasers in backlog currently (d) projected sell through for the next six months is very strong, i.e., using Dataquest numbers a 25% increase for DUV over the next six months, i.e., at least 220 in backorder plus 220 X 1.25 = nearly 500 lasers, about 35% more than Bret projected in his report (e) our Argon lasers have already achieved .18mu and lower in the lab and will begin shipping by the end of this year, i.e., we are already ahead of their curve with our Argon regardless of what they say their specs can deliver - we will have delivered higher specs than their specs and have the lasers at their front door within six months in addition to retaining their current business because frankly semis like a standard, it is more cost effective to continue with a Cymer laser and its continuing improvement program than to slut with a proposed laser with purported better slimmer fat grams (f) semi fabs like standardized tools, its cheaper not only in the short run, but also in the long run regardless of a slight improvement in specs if in fact they do exist, i.e., semi fab 1 can talk business with semi fab 2 regardless of race or company because they both use a Cymer laser. if semi fab 1 used a Komatsu and semi fab 2 through 10 used a Cymer laser, then you've got to buy complete sets of tools for both carrying two separate inventories which increases your cost factor substantially in both labor costs, storage, ordering, training, and fielding gumshoe phone call costs from analysts who are looking for the Damoclese Sword please, Bret, Jay. we're all Americans. although you may not read this without guile, note that someone is watching you. we're talking your job here; none of us are above making mistakes. quit asking your bosses as to which stock you should downgrade today. let's all be honest with each other.