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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (42956)	1/23/2009 3:37:27 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95610

Bob, we are seeing some improvement in the number of new highs to new lows but if this is like 2000 to 2002 it could be a while yet with several false starts while positive divergences build before we can be sure we have bottomed. As you said yourself making a bottom is a slowly building process. When we get there I think the longer term moving averages will be easier to reach without the market having to rally too high too fast. We have to have some rallies for that to happen. But it takes a broad based rally starting with 90% up volume (or two days of 80% up volume in quick succession) on higher than average volume that moves the market above its 50 day and 200 day sma's with all the positive divergences we have been discussing. This also seems to happen when market sentiment is awful. High put to call ratio. High volatility readings but lower than previous highs may be seen. In addition the Investors Intelligence Poll will also likely be overly bearish. It's actually getting more bullish now than it was even as the market has been falling: schaeffersresearch.com Finally have you looked at the NASI lately? Just like the BP Indices it is falling but it is no where near previous buy areas: I don't expect it will fall below the lows of last year but the market will likely decline as it does. It could take quite a while before the NASI stops falling. RtS