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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (139)	1/24/2009 12:14:45 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

Investor2 said: "I think Bob was correct when he said that. He never should have back-peddled and reversed that position." I agree that he might have been right about the secular bear megatrend starting in March 2000, but his overall secular-trend forecasts sure didn't work out for him. He first claimed the cyclical bull market would last 1-2 years and then it would return to a cyclical bear market. He subsequently changed that time-frame to 1-3 years. As the market continued to climb with no sign of a cyclical bear arriving, he said the cyclical bull was getting "long in the tooth." But the market just kept on climbing, so he came out with the unforgettable theory that the cyclical bull market was an "outlier" and the cyclical bear was imminent. But eight years later, (until October 2008) the market was still climbing. So when the Dow and S&P were beginning to break the March 2000 highs, and his secular-trend scenario was getting laughable, he did away with the "secular bear megatrend." (In June 2007, he said that the secular bear that started in March 2000 had ended in June, 2006.) Since June 2007, he has never talked or written about secular trends. . .