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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 12:17:18 AM
From: koan	Respond to of 116555

Good post on Schiff. I have different economic ideas than shiff, but I will admit I made the same mistakes he did. I remember you had three guesses about gold. The third one was a uturn. First down and then up. Looks like that is happening as gold is now joining the dollar in a flight to quality.

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 12:34:24 AM
From: diddlysquatz	2 Recommendations Respond to of 116555

Mish, I've been paying attention to Peter Schiff for years and I give him high praise for standing by his beliefs and calling for a big drop in the financials and home builders and the stock market in general when everyone around him was laughing at him. However, you are right. He has been almost dead wrong in how to take advantage of this chaos and was heavily betting against the US$ and was a big proponent of foreign stock markets and oil as you stated in your blog. I have to admit I have found very few people who have called these markets as accurately as you have. Peter Schiff may get more media attention but I'll listen to your advice over his any day. Congratulations on finally getting the recognition you deserve!

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 1:17:24 AM
From: Bill on the Hill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

man, that was a bitch slap..... mish has brass ones. big brass. damn i love a fight!

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 1:41:37 AM
From: Bill on the Hill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

posted on ticker. tickerforum.org

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 9:13:59 AM
From: jrhana	1 Recommendation Respond to of 116555

Peter Schiff was far from the only one. This was the common group think mentality right here on SI: US Equity Markets Will Crash. US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation). Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown. Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy. This message was voiced with such fervor that there seemed to be no room for error-that this was the inevitable path of the future: <"Buy and hold foreign stocks, foreign currencies, and commodities, come hell or high water, and hold on to them."> Was the common refrain. and so <Hell has arrived for those following Peter Schiff's philosophy>. <Although the US had a massive housing bubble, so did Spain, Ireland, and other parts of Europe. Also note that European banks invested in US mortgage debt.> Our housing bubble seemed to catch all the attention while all the other bubbles were ignored. I actually talked to people that while our bubble was peaking were running around doing bubble condo flipping in the NE coast of Brazil and in Panama. The bubble mentality was everywhere. Vietnam, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, Latvia, India, Latin America etc etc etc. You name it, they had a bubble. Could be European banks are even worse off than ours: telegraph.co.uk <Finally, European banks invested heavily in Latin America and the Baltic states. The US did not make those mistakes.> In retrospect (of course) I think it is very easy to see the error. Everybody could see the problems in the USA, but nobody could see that the rest of the world was if anything worse off. Property bubbles and subprime were everywhere. Even the wonder child, 800 pound gorilla, China, could be in trouble <In the wake of a global slowdown, Chinese export shrink, civil unrest is a worry, and unemployment is rising as noted in Xinhua says there will be more unemployment and social revolts in 2009> Add my congratulations to Mish for being one of the few to see things clearly and in focus.

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 11:15:21 AM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 116555

Boomers Caught in Squeeze Play adweek.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 2:32:39 PM
From: XBrit	Respond to of 116555

Clusterstock picked that one up bigtime... clusterstock.alleyinsider.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 4:34:52 PM
From: Bill on the Hill	2 Recommendations Respond to of 116555

Yahoo Finance picks up the BATTLE OF THE DEFLATIONISTS! finance.yahoo.com Clusterstock post of Mish's comments: clusterstock.alleyinsider.com Peter Schiff's brother (chicken) fights back 2:40 pm: clusterstock.alleyinsider.com Peter Schiff Fights Back Joe Weisenthal \| Jan 26, 09 2:40 PM After this morning's widely-discussed Peter Schiff takedown, his firm, EuroPacificCapital is fighting back. Andrew Schiff (we're not sure what the relation is his brother), sent us an email seeking to clarify a few points. Peter Schiff's critic Michael Schedlock has his own firm, Sitka Capital Management, so he has a commercial incentive to tear down Schiff and attract attention to himself. EuroPacificCapital clients have their own accounts -- it's not a hedge or mutual fund -- so cherry picking individual client returns doesn't necessarily reflect the whole firm's performance. Still, Andrew tells us, he can't legally confirm or deny any firm-wide returns. But he does say this: The biggest impediment to our performance in 2008 has been the rally in the dollar, which we did not predict. As a result, our accounts have suffered this year. However, we believe that the rally is as illogical as it is transitory. We believe that for many fundamental reasons the dollar will fall dramatically. Shedlocks’ criticism is similar to jabs Peter took in 2005 when housing market experts were ridiculing him for making gloomy predictions about home prices, which at that point, were still strong. It didn’t mean that he was wrong then about a housing bubble. True, the dollar may completely collapse yet. But unfortunately, "illogical" and "transitory" doesn't erase the losses. There were plenty of people who totally saw a housing bust coming, but because their timing was wrong, had their clocks cleaned. Being too smart or too early for the market is a convenient way of rationalizing rough performance. ----- Full letter: Joe, It is disappointing that you would choose to raise the profile on Mr. Shedlock’s attack on our firm. In particular, his posting on Market Oracle is primarily an attempt to attract business to his own firm (Sitka Capital Management), by bashing a much larger and better known firm. We have thousands of clients, and since all of our accounts are run individually, holding up the performance of one client is not representative of our firm as a whole. As a broker dealer (not a Registered Investment Advisor as Mr. Shedlock’s firm), it would be illegal for us to publish or to otherwise make claims as to past or expected investment performance. Mr. Shedlock knows this, but sees a chance to gain credibility as a result of our lack of response to his challenge. It is also useless to compare the performance of a long only foreign stock brokerage, with a long/short U.S.-focused RIA. The biggest impediment to our performance in 2008 has been the rally in the dollar, which we did not predict. As a result, our accounts have suffered this year. However, we believe that the rally is as illogical as it is transitory. We believe that for many fundamental reasons the dollar will fall dramatically. Shedlocks’ criticism is similar to jabs Peter took in 2005 when housing market experts were ridiculing him for making gloomy predictions about home prices, which at that point, were still strong. It didn’t mean that he was wrong then about a housing bubble. I would ask that you mention that commercial interest rather than journalistic objectivity informs Mr. Shedlock’s posting. Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Andrew Schiff Director of Communications Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 5:03:34 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 116555

Hold the Presses for Americas Top Commode Economist Message 25355189

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 7:29:30 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, this is your best one yet. Peter Schiff is a clown just like nearly everyone else on TV. Only a few pundits get it, Roubini coming first to mind. KNOCKOUT FOR HURRICANE MISH!

To: mishedlo who wrote (93384)	1/26/2009 11:52:06 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Excellent piece, Mish. And on another deflationary and very sour note... my brother lost his job today. He's the safety officer at a Weyerhaeuser mill in Aberdeen, Washington, and the mill was closed permanently today along with another in town. They had 3 hours notice. The mill had been in operation for at least 40 years, and he had worked there about 30. They were told that Weyerhaeuser alone had capacity that exceeded their projection of demand for at least the next year, by far. So, as my brother put it, many other mills are under enormous pressure right now. In all, 221 jobs in a small economy hit very hard in the past few years by other mill closures.