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To: tejek who wrote (451468)1/27/2009 11:49:06 AM
From: Road Walker  Respond to of 1573980
 
November Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18.2%

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as foreclosures climbed and sales sank.

The decrease in the S&P/Case-Shiller index was in line with forecasts and followed an 18.1 percent drop in October. The gauge started falling in January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

Record foreclosures have contributed to more than $1 trillion in losses worldwide that have prompted banks to shut off access to credit. While plunging values have made homes more affordable, they have also hurt household wealth, contributing to a slump in spending that’s likely to continue for the first half of the year.

“The housing market has not yet reached its bottom,” Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “People have to be in a position where they are not afraid of their most significant asset.”

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 18.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17.4 percent to 20 percent.

Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in November, led by a 33 percent drop in Phoenix and a 32 percent decline in Las Vegas.

Broad-Based Drop

“The freefall in residential real estate continued through November,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “Overall, more than half of the metro areas had record annual declines.”

Consumer confidence this month probably held near a record low as Americans fretted about paying their mortgages and keeping their jobs, economists forecast the Conference Board’s sentiment index will show today at 10 a.m.

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

The 20-city index is down 25 percent from its 2006 peak. Eleven of the 20 metropolitan areas showed record declines in the year ended in November, and eight showed the biggest month-to- month decrease on record.

Home prices decreased 2.2 in November from the prior month, matching the October decrease, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month. Phoenix and Las Vegas also showed the biggest one-month declines.

Other Measures

Other housing reports have shown property values continue to weaken as foreclosures climb. The median sales price of existing homes fell 15.3 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with a 13.6 percent annual decline the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.

Sales of existing homes, which make up about 90 percent of the market, gained 6.5 percent in December from a decade low the prior month, the Realtors group said yesterday. For all of 2008, existing home sales fell 13.1 percent.

U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 81 percent last year as more than 2.3 million properties got a default or auction notice, or were seized by lenders, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data.

President Barack Obama has pledged to unveil programs to stem foreclosures and boost housing as he battles the longest recession in a quarter century. The president will also use the second $350 billion outlay from last year’s financial rescue plan to help stem foreclosures, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said yesterday.

Construction Slump

Housing starts are down 75 percent from their January 2006 peak. Declining construction has hurt economic growth for the last three years and is likely to weigh further on the economy as the recession extends into 2009.

Builders, banks, retailers and manufacturers are all feeling the pinch. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s biggest maker of construction equipment, yesterday announced it was cutting 20,000 jobs as the worldwide building slump hurt sales.

“We’re in the midst of a downward spiral and the momentum is building,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said on a conference call.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPhone: bbiphone.bloomberg.com



To: tejek who wrote (451468)1/27/2009 11:53:12 AM
From: Road Walker  Respond to of 1573980
 
Consumer confidence darkens further in January
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Retail Writer Anne D'innocenzio, Ap Retail Writer
34 mins ago

NEW YORK – Americans' mood about the economy darkened further in January, sending a widely watched barometer of consumer sentiment to a new low, a private research group said Tuesday, as people worry about their jobs and watch their retirement funds dwindle.

The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 37.7 from a revised 38.6 in December, lower than the reading of 39 that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected. In recent months the index has hit its lowest troughs since it began in 1967, and is hovering at less than half its level of January 2007, when it was 87.3.

"It appears that consumers have begun the new year with the same degree of pessimism that they exhibited in the final months of 2008," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. "Looking ahead, consumers remain quite pessimistic about the state of the economy and about their earnings."

The Present Situation Index, which measures how shoppers feel now about the economy, declined slightly to 29.9 from 30.2 last month. The Expectations Index,which measures shoppers' outlook over the next six months, decreased to 43.0 from 44.2.

Franco added that until she sees considerable improvement in shoppers' outlook for the economy, she can't say that "the worst of times are behind us."

The downbeat report prompted Wall Street to give up an early advance. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 17 points at 8,098 after being up as much as 85 points.

Economists closely watch consumer confidence since consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. But the latest signs of a nervous consumer spur fresh alarm about the economy and the health of the retail industry, which is struggling with the most severe spending retrenchment in decades.

Stores limped through the weakest holiday period since at least 1969, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. And retail sales appear to be only deteriorating in January as shoppers continue to be whipsawed by massive layoffs across all sectors of the economy. The unemployment rate, now at a 16-year high of 7.2 percent, could hit 10 percent or higher later this year or early next year, according to some analysts' projections.

Several big companies announced layoffs Monday, sending thousands more to the unemployment lines.

Drugmaker Pfizer Inc., which is buying Wyeth in a $68 billion deal, and Sprint Nextel Corp., the country's third-largest wireless provider, each plan to slash 8,000 jobs. Home Depot Inc. is shedding 7,000 jobs, and General Motors Corp. said it will cut 2,000 more jobs. Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of mining and construction equipment, announced 5,000 new layoffs on top of several earlier actions.

Meanwhile, a report on home prices released Tuesday offered more bad news about the slumping housing market. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index showed home prices dropped by 18.2 percent in November, the sharpest annual rate on record.

The Consumer Confidence survey — derived from responses received through Jan. 21 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed that consumers' overall assessment of current conditions remain pessimistic. Those saying that business conditions are "bad" increased to 47.9 percent from 45.8 percent, while those saying they are "good" declined to 6.4 percent from 7.7 percent last month.

Consumers' short-term outlook also remains gloomy. Those expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months decreased slightly to 31.1 percent from 32.9 percent, while those anticipating conditions to improve was little changed at 13.3 percent in January, compared with 13.4 percent in December.



To: tejek who wrote (451468)1/27/2009 11:54:08 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1573980
 
Market up. Can you imagine two days in a row if that happens.
Battle lines between folks who see things getting worse this quarter but then improving and folks who see things getting worse this quarter and then getting worse again. I vote for April. 100 second song to follow. Always cheers me up at the heigth of a very bad winter.

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