To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (45894 ) 1/27/2009 4:06:03 PM From: TobagoJack 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217740 follow-on observation, the four obama years will prove decisive, but more than likely not in any way in accordance with expectations of people who voted him in. obama will be humble in all spheres of rule, across geopolitical tables, on the battle fields, and in global perception arena, by every which way a guess he will have strutted in, and humbled out let us watch and brief just in in-trayFrom Cumberland: Why Secretary Geithner's China Comments Matter January 27, 2009 Bob Eisenbeis is Cumberland's Chief Monetary Economist. Prior to joining Cumberland Advisors he was the Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Bob is presently a member of the U.S. Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee and the Financial Economist Roundtable. His bio is found at www.cumber.com. He may be reached at Bob.Eisenbeis@cumber.com. Treasury Secretary Geithner's comments at his confirmation hearing and subsequent responses to written questions from Senators have provoked surprise and consternation here, in China, and around the world. His comments went far beyond his own personal views when he stated that the Obama administration believes that the Chinese government has engaged in currency manipulation. Why would the administration deliberately pick that moment to intentionally slight the Chinese government? It is clear that this slight was not, like forgetting to pay taxes, an "innocent mistake." What has gotten somewhat lost in the turmoil over these remarks is that this was not a "slip" by an inexperienced person. Regardless of what one thinks about the economic credentials that Secretary Geithner brings to the job, he does have credentials when it comes to international relations, and especially China and the Far East. He served as Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs and was director of the Policy Development and Review Department at the International Monetary Fund. In terms of degrees, his bachelor's degree is in government and Asian studies, and his master's degree is from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, in international economics and East Asian studies. In addition, he has studied both Japanese and Chinese and has lived in East Africa, India, Thailand, China, and Japan. This is not the background of someone who would fail to understand the import of his remarks. He, above all, should have realized that the carefully worded statement would send a strong message. This means that either he actually believes that the slight was worth the potential costs, or else he may have warned against how the response would be received, but was ignored. Either way, we should be concerned. Bob Eisenbeis, Chief Monetary Economist, email: bob.eisenbeis@cumber.com