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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (43072)	1/28/2009 6:29:11 PM
From: Pam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

So obviously that is a big change, ie, consensus estimate for the March quarter of -0.16 going to -0.60 to -0.80 as put forth by LRCX today. Don, March Q is weak but more importantly the company is guiding 6-8 quarters of weakness! There is way too much capacity across the board and unless their customers make money for a couple of quarters, they are unlikely to add new capacity. This type of situation has been "lurking" in the background for the last several weeks and months. This is why the earnings season is so important and interesting because we finally get(in most cases) the outlook for the future straight from the company and not filtered thru the analyst eyes. Yes. It has been going on a while before the time I requested you to post the EPS estimates table which showed the weekly deterioration in EPS estimates for LRCX and WFR. In SCE sector, we will need to first see improvement in lithography tool suppliers, which help lower costs, before we see improvement in suppliers of more capacity.