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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (43085)	1/29/2009 9:43:02 AM
From: cluka	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95574

BWAC, You have a very valid point, however, LRCX is the last stock I want at this moment. They are leveraged to worst portfolio of customers and are trading at a premium. This is partly company specific.

To: BWAC who wrote (43085)	1/29/2009 12:16:42 PM
From: Pam	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95574

Just for the record, Ox please inform the readers when the best time to buy the semi-equip stocks for a 200 to 400% return happens to be? Use LRCX for an example of earnings level. IE when is the point where big money is made by buying what others are selling. Is it: A.) When earnings are above $1 per quarter and not a bad word or down quarter to be seen? or B.) When there are no earnings, no visibility, and losses as far as the eye can see? Rest of the thread feel free to answer as well. MOST all of you have been around for many cycles. I expect you know the answer. And that in itself is why you have been around for years and still have capital to trade the next cycle. It is all about capital efficiency. If you deploy your capital too early, it is less efficient and generates returns below what it is truly capable of. A good stock bought at the wrong time can lose money for you and a bad stock bought at the right time can make money for you! If you follow the industry, it should be clear that LRCX hasn't bottomed yet, so why should you get in prematurely?

To: BWAC who wrote (43085)	1/30/2009 3:04:15 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95574

B) Let me add: My current view is that you don't want to buy a stock until it is coming off it's most recent bottom. If I was trying to help others, I would suggest that they wait until a stock has risen at least 10% off of its bottom, then keep a relatively tight stop in place, say around a % or 2 above (or at) the recent low. Since these stocks will go up a couple of hundred % when they get going, one can implement the above strategy numerous times if you keep getting stopped out. Just one of many approaches but I feel this is a relatively safe strategy to employ. Combine the above with reasonable financial analysis, to see where the company is guiding. No need to get very bullish on a company if their management isn't very positive on the company's immediate future. fwiw, jmo TO