SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: wurkinstiff who wrote (256)1/29/2009 5:03:07 PM
From: joefromspringfield  Respond to of 3605
 
Workinstif

Sorry but we don't reveal Brinker's Copyrighted information. If someone like Hulbert or Trask publishes it we will talk about what they say. Brinker has forced several websites to shut down any discussion of him for posting his copyrighted information.



To: wurkinstiff who wrote (256)1/29/2009 5:58:15 PM
From: Honey_Bee  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 3605
 
Hi Wurkinstiff,

I'm glad you found this thread. Welcome.

Joe is right, we probably would find ourselves shown the door if we posted copyrighted material. But there is no rule against my personal, educated guesses. 8^)

Brinker issued his "last" special bulletin (as was announced on his website) on January 15, 2009. The S&P 500 was at 844 that day.

We know for a fact that he does not recommend selling into weakness and after having remaining fully invested through this whole bear market and having given all-in buy signals at mid-1400's, mid-1300's, and low to mid-1200's, it's a lead pipe cinch he didn't issue a sell signal on January 15th at mid-800's....

Here are excerpts of what I wrote about the subject on my blog on January 21st:

Bob Brinker's Bear Market Bottoms

Bob Brinker announced a special bulletin on his website, bobbrinker.com on January 15, 2009. Some of you have asked if he has called a new market bottom and issued a new buy signal.

If Brinker did call a new market bottom on January 15, 2009 it would be the third one since the start of the mega-bear market just a year ago when Brinker's buy-in level was at S&P mid-1400's.

..... On Moneytalk in April 2008, Brinker said he was buying in the low-1300's:

Caller John said: “I took your recommendation, Bob.. When it was below the 1300’s I added....."

Brinker replied: "And just for the record, I’m right with John. I was the exact same thing that John was doing. When we saw that weakness on the correction test into the low-1300’s and that very, very minor weakness that we had just below that level for a very short window of time, I was doing the same thing that John was doing – which was adding to positions."

Brinker's second bottom call was September 3, 2008. Brinker said he thought there might be "additional testing of the July 15 closing low," but in his view "the S&P 500 low-to-mid 1200's range is an attractive area for equity purchases." (Brinker rescinded this advice just two weeks later, and resumed recommending dollar-cost-averaging.)

Now here we are in January, 2009 and some are speculating that Brinker has found a new bottom and issued a new buy signal. Well, he is not alone if he is thinking that the market is in a bottoming process and testing the November lows.

Mark Hulbert wrote an article for Marketwatch on January 15th titled: "No Key Reversal." Hulbert thinks that the bear market bottoming process has further to go. (If Brinker agreed with Mark, would he have issued that bulletin?)

January 17th, David Korn said that he thinks a good entry point is 750-800:

"There was some talk on Wall Street about a retest of the lows occurring Thursday. The S&P 500 recorded its closing low on November 20, 2008 at 753.44. Now other than that day, the lowest close for the S&P 500 was the day after (November 21st) when it closed at 800.03. We got pretty close to that on Thursday, when the intra-day low was 817.79, before it closed at 843.74. I prefer a retest where the new low is breached, on lower volume. But if you are looking to buy, I think a good long term entry point is between 750-800 in the S&P 500."

It's important to remember that Brinker never recommends selling the market into weakness. Brinker reiterated this to a caller on Moneytalk just 3 months ago. September 27th, Brinker said: "Actually Ken, it's not my opinion that you should be selling stocks right now. I don't have a recommendation to sell stock right now. And if I did have a recommendation to sell stock right now, you would know about it. No, I do not have that recommendation. And really, that's all I can say. We have not, we have not issued a sell signal on this market."

In the January 6, 2009 issue of Marketimer, Brinker said that he expected the 750-850 November lows to provide support for completing the bottoming phase.

.