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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pam who wrote (43128)	1/30/2009 12:31:42 PM
From: cluka	Respond to of 95561

Pam, You are letting your positions influence your decisions. KLAC is not going down, it is a good opportunity here. It is particularly good for those that are market neutral. Buying KLAC, selling LRCX short is a high probability trade. You are also making a basic mistake of trying to trade looking at long term trends. You full well know you cannot trade intra day looking at the daily chart. Why are you then trying to project what you see in the next 6 mos. to what happens in market today?

To: Pam who wrote (43128)	1/30/2009 12:50:30 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95561

Pam, The comment on revenue seems way off. <<Analyst Comments: BofA/Merrill upgraded KLA-Tencor following the company's Q2 report and raised guidance. The firm believes revenues may have bottomed>>. By KLAC's report, quarter 3 revenues are going to be much less than quarter 2 revenue. Here are excerpts from a Reuter's article. <<KLA-Tencor earned $396.6 million in revenue for the second quarter, higher than the $394.1 million analysts were expecting, according to Reuters Estimates. * Q2 non-GAAP loss of 12 cents/per shr wider than expected * Sees Q3 non-GAAP loss of 20 cents-35 cents/per share * Sees Q3 revenue $280 million-$320 million>> uk.reuters.com

To: Pam who wrote (43128)	1/30/2009 2:10:48 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95561

At the TOP, we were amazed that LRCX had a PEG of 0.5 or so... Check Don's tables for Oct 02 to March 03... I believe LRCX had a PEG of 4 to infinity.... TERRIBLE valuation. UTEK said last Q they expected flat to slight growth in 09 while they saw the rest of the sector selling less. NOW they see 10 to 20% revenue decline for '09. They still expect to make a profit but are cutting salaries, etc. to be profitable on lower sales. An order for a $3 to $5M tool can have a huge positive impact... a few extra tools... Interesting comment I heard on UTEK call. Parts and service revenue is down because companies are cannibalizing their idle equipment to save money. This creates delayed demand for after the market turns as the idle capacity is vanishing... it probably explains why demand oftencome from nowhere.

To: Pam who wrote (43128)	2/2/2009 12:54:49 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95561

"Buy on the first sign of a loss and sell whenever they become profitable! Of course, there are many that never recover to the price you paid and keep generating losses!" Do you have a favorite formula with proven success? My method of averaging in as companies on my list fall below prices I think are good value works over the long term, but I am damned tired of the portfolio volatility. I'd live to find a better method... but this seems to be how Buffett does it too.