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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (43132)	2/2/2009 12:04:04 PM
From: Pam	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

Thank you for clarifying your views for those of us on this thread. I was quite certain that you were often short by the approach you take in responding to others (and in my opinion, it often is bordering on condescension). Please understand that I don't view shorting as wrong or evil. Quite the opposite...unless its naked shorting...which is another topic all together. TO, my responses reflect my views about stocks and my long/short positions reflect my views about those stocks, in that order and not the other way around. I have not tried to sway anyone into selling their shares so that it would benefit my long/short positions, nor do I think readers on this thread are in a position to move the prices of stocks in a material way, at least not the ones where I have a position. Also, it is unfortunate that you interpret my conviction and strong views about matters we discuss as condescending behavior. Let me assure you, that was never my intention. Maybe, I need to improve my writing skills. Anyway, maybe my reaction to your posts have been on the hostile side of things because when I read some of the stuff you put out... like this: we may have a bottom in place but we could revisit it or even go lower ...it strikes me as covering every base and basically saying nothing to those of us who are interested in your opinion. I say...whats the point of saying we may go up or we may go down or we may stay flat? All I want to say when I read that is: DUH. TO, I had a similar reception from a few posters on SPSN thread in late 2007/early 2008 while it was clear to many of us on SNDK thread, even while SPSN was in double digits, that NOR business was a dying breed with weakening fundamentals and SPSN had a poor B/S. Many had long positions at the time, based on the belief that the stock was trading at a significant discount to its book value! As I have said here too, BV is just BV and without proper adjustments it is not meaningful. People often feel offended when they are long and have money losing positions and someone comes in with a different view that is contrary to their expectations. They want to shoot down the messenger rather than evaluating the merits of the message and think through for themselves whether it makes any sense! As for the remarks about market bottom, here's what was was asked and what I said. How much lower do you think we are going? For the market in general, I think, we may have a bottom in place but we could revisit it or even go lower if the current financial crisis faced by banks is not resolved soon. Next few months are critical. First of all, the situation is changing by the minute and no one knows for sure how things will evolve. As new information comes in, it needs to be evaluated again as best as one can. What I have said, and I am no expert about market bottoms so take it with a huge grain of salt, if we do not resolve the banking crisis soon (I said a few months but it should be a few weeks), we are headed lower ELSE it is my belief that we have a bottom in place. I have already written about why it is important to resolve banking crisis. Also, earnings have been weak and guidance about future is lacking due to poor visibility, and after the action last two days, it seems like we will test Nov lows at minimum. Look, predictions are always difficult to make, especially if they are about the future ;-( Bottoms can never be predicted, only confirmed after the fact, and in any case, my core strengths are at analyzing individual companies rather than the market as a whole! There are just too many variables that I think, is beyond the scope of any one individual and most certainly beyond my expertise. I'll try to be more civil and careful in future posts to you, since I now have a little better appreciation of your current viewpoint. If you'll accept a little more criticism from me, I would suggest that you don't end posts with what are clearly obvious statements, as though you think the person you are responding to can't grasp the concept! For example, recently I mentioned Price to Sales in one of my posts and your response concluded with "P/S ratio by itself means nothing without looking at other things." Once again, my response becomes: DUH. I hope this is read in the proper light and not viewed as being too negative. fwiw...my 2 cents...etc.... That's good to hear and I will continue doing my part, although I am getting busy with something else and I may not get much time to blog my views. As for the P/S comment, I went back and reviewed my post to see why the comment was made and I find it appropriate based on what you said and in the context you said. Here's what you said: 37Mil shares x $1.60/share = mkt cap of $60mil, or roughly a price to sales of 1. In the current market environment, this is a very high figure for stocks in this sector. Many are selling at 1/5 PS ratios. Here's what I responded with: It is not expensive to pay P/S of 1 if the company is reasonably profitable but this one isn't going to be and that is the reason one shouldn't buy the stock unless revs are going to grow. P/S ratio by itself means nothing without looking at other things. TO, proper interpretation and understanding of financial statements is extremely important when dealing with investment valuations. I have seen improper and incomplete extractions from financial statements posted on many SI threads, including this one. It can make one reach a conclusion that will be suboptimal if all the data is considered. The thing is if one doesn't know it, one may not even realize it that he or she is making a mistake, and that includes me.