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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (2084)	1/31/2009 10:20:43 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 3209

Saw Krugman speak the other night. Something keeps ringing in my ears: "this isn't your father's recession, this is your great-grandfather's recession". Of course, we're so much smarter now... <S> `BC

To: NOW who wrote (2084)	1/31/2009 6:35:04 PM
From: Grandk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Interesting chart. TL points to around 4500ish. Still a lot lower than where we are right now. Any S&P charts from back in the day?

To: NOW who wrote (2084)	2/2/2009 2:11:16 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

The basing period from the 60s to the early 80s was roughly 17 years. I think we could also view the last 11 years as a similar basing pattern that may need a few more years to resolve. It took about 10 years for the dark black candle in the middle of the 60s-80s base (was that 1973?). Could this be suggesting that the most current recent large black candle from 2008 is creating a similar pattern? Should 2009 turn white, it would reinforce this suggestion. We are roughly ten years into what appears to be another basing formation. Just an opposing view to the retrace to 1000 suggestion. I would think the bears from the early 70s might have pointed to 1950 levels, making similar bearish "suggestions". Certainly the negative US sentiment surrounding the Nixon resignation could be viewed as similar to the low sentiment that Bush II has had during his last year in office. Vietnam vs Iraq and other similar global troubles are also suggesting a similar pattern may be developing. Just voicing an opposing view for the sake of discussion, not as a vote against your "1000" possibility. fwiw, TO