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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (180944)1/31/2009 5:16:36 PM
From: ChanceIsRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
>>> staring into the jaws of total financial collapse, right here, right now,<<<

That argument has a lot of merit. OTOH, it does seem that the Treasury/FED/FDIC will get its bad bank facility act together....by Thursday???? That might cause an upward spike....short covering.

A year ago, Roubini was fond of giving the tally of stimulus and response. It was clear that with each government act (interest rate cuts, short covering bans, seizing FNE/FRE, TARP, etc) the amplitude of the response was smaller and its duration shorter. He hasn't presented that info recently. It seems to me that the TARP was administered in Sept/Oct and by November the market had bottomed. I can't recall quite when Bernanke slashed rates to zero, but the market barely flinched.

We rallied early in the week on the "Bad Bank" news. That might have been completely discounted and Thursday's announcement - should it happen - might be ignored or even a sell signal.

Tough trading days. I do think that there is another dark side entry points on the restaurants right here. Starbucks is getting pasted. CR recently posted some new "restaurant index" in his rouge's gallery of cliff diving.



To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (180944)2/1/2009 1:55:03 PM
From: tejekRespond to of 306849
 
Commercial Paper Tally Plunges; No Worry

01/29/2009 1:03 PM

The total amount of commercial paper outstanding fell by $98.9 billion in the week ended Jan. 28, the most ever, according to data released earlier today by the Federal Reserve. Whereas large decreases in the past were the result of deteriorating conditions in the money market, the past week's decrease is arguably the result of improved conditions in the money market.

The past week's decline relates to one factor in particular: Many financial companies have found other sources of funding, partly to lengthen the terms of their borrowing. In particular, banks have issued bonds backed by the FDIC's temporary guarantee loan facility (TGLF); for example, Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) last week issued $12 billion of FDIC-backed securities; General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take) has issued $20.9 billion; JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take)$17.9 billion; Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) $19.9 billion, Bloomberg data show.

Banks that raise capital through the FDIC's program can cut their short-term borrowing, a desirable goal in the current environment where excessive reliance upon short-term funding is extremely risky, as a few large firms have found out.

Note that in the latest week, the amount of commercial paper outstanding for financial companies fell $93.5 billion, representing nearly the entire decline.

The commercial paper market should be expected to continue shrinking in the near term, owing to the maturation on Friday of 90-day commercial paper held by the Fed, said to be about $250 billion. Many issuers have been able to either term-out their debts or gain funding from the capital markets, where rates have fallen below the cost of issuing commerical paper to the Fed. Decreases are likely also because of the weak U.S. economy, which reduces the need for working capital, money normally used for the production of goods and services, now in decline.