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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: posthumousone who wrote (181085)	2/1/2009 3:56:09 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 306849

Most, if not all, states have laws preventing manufacturers from competing with their franchises. So far, the Fed has been buying short dated agencies but, of course, that could change. The trend is your friend .......... until it ends.

To: posthumousone who wrote (181085)	2/1/2009 4:00:09 PM
From: James Hutton	Respond to of 306849

After the last meeting they said they might buy treasuries. After the most recent meeting, they didn't strengthen that statement and positively say they were in fact going to buy treasuries. Because the market was apparently assuming the Fed was going to issue a strong statement (and therefore was artificially propping up the price of the thirty-year treasuries), TBT went up (and TLT went down) after the most recent fed statement. If the fed affirmatively states that it will buy 30-years, TLT will move up and TBT will move down (strongly probably depending upon the details of the statement). Thus, I'd keep any position in TBT to a short-term trading position, not a longer-term play. But that's JMHO.

To: posthumousone who wrote (181085)	2/1/2009 4:04:37 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

"TBT" I don't really have any thoughts on it. I don't play treasuries, track them, or have any understanding of what causes them to move. People have told me to buy them if I wanted to go into total safe fetal hunker, but I haven't ever gotten there. GLD always seemed better.

To: posthumousone who wrote (181085)	2/1/2009 6:00:06 PM
From: hdl	Respond to of 306849

long treasuries are an absurd bubble. tbt is200% short long treasuries. buy them - and hold until you've made a lot of money. treasuries have started to go down.the fed may buy long trasuries. the fed wants treasuries to stay in bubble mode. but, treasury should not be buying assets. that is not its role. it broke that rule re commercial paper. but commercial paper was in an absurd bust. fed certainly should not support a bubble. u s a owes a fortune. u s a cannot continue to buy goods and give paper. u s a cannot maintain trade deficit. u s a cannot maintain budget deficit. u s a is dependent on foreign buyers of treasuries. foreigners will stop buying. foreigners are getting very little interest. besides they get paid back years later in depreciating dollars. besides, eventually foreigners will sell treasuries, as it is not possible for u s a to continue as it has. meanwhile, u s a does not produce, citizens are lazy and uneducated, and spend, and don't save (and government is trying to get citizens not to save) and economy is based on them spending when they don't have. interest rates must go up. then interest on enormous debt will be enormous. as to timing, you should have bought tbt a little while ago. but, you will make a fortune. the key is to buy in size. don't worry about when. hold for a big multiple on your investment. buy. don't miss the opportunity. there are other opportunities now. with 20-20 hindsight, we'll know what they were. but, there are few sure things. sure, eventually commodities and solid companies with strong balance sheets paying dividends and best in their field and selling at great values are likely to do well over long term. bent is confused. tbt is not buying treasuries. it is double shorting long treasuries.