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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (117299)	2/2/2009 3:35:57 AM
From: marcos	Respond to of 206113

Net exports 0.4%, it says ... keyword 'net' ... do you want tariff walls at the canadian border? - it can be done, pipe the oil to Rupert and east to the Maritimes, might take a while but it can be done, lots of 'infrastructure stimulus' in it too, we don't have the nazis to contend with this time around so we can focus on whoever else wants to fill their role Tariff walls have been the reality for BC lumber since time began, there is a timber barons' lobby that seems to rule the snakepit they call the 'Commerce' department ... yet here we are, what's left of us, bloodied but unbowed

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (117299)	2/2/2009 8:55:18 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 206113

I've heard more often that it exacerbated it.. not caused it.. We talk about ~ 80% US weighted foreign trade up here... but foreign trade is I think 20% of GDP.. I dunno how much that would need be cut to cause a depression ... TBS

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (117299)	2/2/2009 9:51:03 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	10 Recommendations Respond to of 206113

Export trade accounted for only 0.4% of the U.S. GDP when the Great Depression occurred, and imports 5.4%. (underlined in red below) you need to learn the meaning of "net". Exports: 5.9 Imports: 5.6 Net Exports: 0.4 (due to rounding) btw, the figures are not percentages; they are presented as billions of dollars. 5.9 instead of 0.4, so you are off by more than an order of magnitude. You can't cause an economic depression by reducing your GDP by 0.4%. It's complete nonsense. Garbage In, Garbage Out. your assumption is wrong by a factor of approximately 15, so your conclusion is without merit. here is what Wikipedia says: Economic effects According to government statistics, U.S. imports from Europe declined from a 1929 high of $1,334 million to just $390 million in 1932, while U.S. exports to Europe fell from $2,341 million in 1929 to $784 million in 1932. Overall, world trade declined by some 66% between 1929 and 1934.[9] There is no universal agreement about the effect of the tariff. According to the U.S. Statistical Abstract, the effective tariff rate was 13.5% in 1929 and 19.8% in 1933 with 63% of all imports being duty-free. From 1821 through 1900 the United States averaged 29.7% effective tariff rates and peaked in 1830 at 57.3% with only 8% of all imports being duty-free, dwarfing the Smoot-Hawley rate. In addition, imports in 1929 were only 4.2% of the United States' GNP and exports were only 5.0%. Smoot-Hawley's effect on the entire U.S. economy may have been small, compared to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. By 1937 the effective tariff rate was reduced to 15.6% when the reaction of 1937-1938 occurred, demonstrating no statistical correlation between this economic downturn and tariff levels. Senator Robert L. Owen testified at the hearings on HR 7230, the bill to make the Federal Reserve banks a national property, that; "In 1937, when the Federal Reserve Board called upon the banks to raise their reserves to twice what they had been before, there was a contraction of credit of two billion dollars.[10] Using panel data estimates of export and import equations for 17 countries, Jakob B. Madsen (2002) estimated the effects of increasing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on worldwide trade during the period 1929–1932. He concluded that real international trade contracted somewhere around 33% overall. His estimates of the impact of various factors included about 14% because of declining GNP in each country, 8% because of increases in tariff rates, 5% because of deflation-induced tariff increases, and 6% because of the imposition of nontariff barriers. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act "imposed an effective tax rate of 60% on more than 3,200 products and materials imported into the United States", quadrupling previous tariff rates. Although the tariff act was passed after the stock-market crash of 1929, some economic historians consider the political discussion leading up to the passing of the act a factor in causing the crash, the recession that began in late 1929, or both, and its eventual passage a factor in deepening the Great Depression.[11] Unemployment was at 7.8% in 1930 when the Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed, but it jumped to 16.3% in 1931, 24.9% in 1932, and 25.1% in 1933.[12]