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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Les H who wrote (181168)2/2/2009 11:38:17 AM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Denial in Palo Alto

Palo Alto to 'Rebound' By Year-End, Say Local Realtors

sfgate.com

The Palo Alto real estate market may be resilient, but it isn't immune to the credit crisis -- the total number of Palo Alto homes sold fell 60 percent last quarter, year-over-year. And while high-end sales have held up alright, the mid- to low-end of the market isn't faring quite as well. As evidence: Sales of two-bedroom houses dropped 3 percent last quarter, and sales of three-bedroom houses dropped 8 percent. Meanwhile, sales of four-bedroom houses climbed 7 percent last quarter, year-over-year.

Palo Alto: Home of the "tall tree" and million-dollar bungalows.
Still, local real estate brokers and market watchers are surprisingly optimistic that the market will "rebound" by year's end, according to a Palo Alto Online report. At a community forum, Mark Duval, chief investment officer for Opes Advisors, predicted the market could turn around by the end of 2009.

"Long-term economic growth in the U.S. is positive," he reportedly said. "[It] will keep a premium for housing in this area."

We'd like to believe Mr. Duval, but given that some economists believe we could be in for the "longest recession since World War II," while the unemployment rate keeps soaring, we're somewhat skeptical. Even if Silicon Valley is the so-called "center of innovation", many of the largest local employers, such as Hewlett Packard, are cutting jobs faster than you can say "$1.7 billion charge," and that can't be good for the local real estate biz.

Posted By: Betsy Schiffman (Email) | January 29 2009 at 10:25 AM

Listed Under: Palo Alto | Comments (6) : Post Comment

Comments
What qualifies this man to speak and for you to quote him?

Posted By: wahwah | January 29 2009 at 10:36 AM

I've been tracking the PA market, and we're definitely in the "sellers in denial" phase in the $2-3M segment of the market (ridiculously enough, this is only mid- or mid/high-end in PA).

You've got a growing glut of houses in that range sitting there for months, despite some multi-hundred thousand $$ price cuts. Now that the banks have severely tightened up their lending, big jumbo mortgages are very hard to get. Combine that with all the economic pain and the plunging stock market, and it's no wonder that buyers have disappeared.

Realtors are up to their usual bs: claiming "we just got an offer today", taking houses off the market and then re-listing them so that the websites don't reveal how long they've remained unsold, and so on.

Many of these are brand new houses. If you do a little research, you see that would-be developers bought tear-downs for like $1M in 2006 & 2007 at the peak of the market and put down only 20% or so. They figured they'd leverage up, get a loan and build a big new house for another $1M, and then sell the thing for over $3M and make a tidy $1M profit with just $200K down. Some of these guys are realtors themselves and got caught up in the bubble hype.

Now they're on the hook for $2M in debt, and hemorrhaging $10-15K a month in interest, property tax, and so on.

Don't believe the realtors when they say things aren't so bad. These sellers are bleeding big time, and it's going to get worse.

Posted By: Jimborama | January 30 2009 at 10:13 AM

I have been closley watching and studying the bay area market for the past year. the local agents are totally in denial or clueless to the degree of credit tightening and over valuation of the homes. The housing boom is OVER. Free credit with nothing down and no verification for unqualified buyers is over. Stock options have vanished with the DOW slide.

The upper end of the market 2 million plus is soon to get hit. Do your research on the ARM default rates. These are the loans that people with good credit and good jobs took to buy a home that was just too expensive. This happened all over the bay and forced prices throught he roof. These loans will default at a rate of 30% over the next 2-3 years!!!

That 2 million doller home will be worth 800k in 24 months. Those uninformed buyers who are buying now may take years to regain the equity they are going to loose in the next 24 months.

Agents are protecting their turf. They will say anything they want. If you want the real truth call an bank and ask to prequal for a home in PA for 2 million and watch what happens!!!

They may be a home and there that sells, but for the majority of buyers this is a TERRIBLE time to buy.

Don't take my word for it. Go to Mr Mortgage and look at default rates on ARM's, realtytrac.com trends (spend $50) and see what you find.

Ya right, rebound by the end of the year????

I have some bean stock beans to sell you.

Posted By: crazycoach44 | January 30 2009 at 01:56 PM

crazycoach, thanks for the info on Mr Mortgage--it's a really interesting site.

I'm pretty sure the agents know how bad things are out there. They're just telling their clients that things are still rosy, because the agents and realty firms have a vested interest in high housing prices. As the bubble pops, their commissions dry up and buyers stay on the sidelines...they don't want to see that happen.

It's a real farce how realtors clamor to you trying to be your exclusive rep once they find out you're in the market. As a buying agent, you'd think their job is to help you get the best house at the lowest price, right? But no, they tell you how prices are fair now, this is only a temporary decline, and that it's time to buy buy buy!

Yeah, that's just what I need: to sign up someone to represent me who's going to try to get me to pay up bubble prices to delusional sellers in the midst of the biggest housing implosion in a generation.

Posted By: Jimborama | January 30 2009 at 02:40 PM

You can tell when a realtor is lying. Their lips move. You should never ever pay them 6% to sell your home. And if you are a buyer remember you are the one who pays. You can get another 5% reduction if you buy direct.

Posted By: dobbsj | February 01 2009 at 09:18 PM

Lets hope that the crisis continues for a few years so that some real pain hits the Palo Alto market. The blocks I know are a mixture of Prop 13 gargoyles, people who will never move and couldn't possibly afford current market rates or taxes, and transient newcomers who stay for a few years and then leave. Many of the people who can afford to pay mostly cash for a $2-3M house, the only way it works with current lending conditions, know that it is a big world and you can get a lot more almost anywhere else for your $2M. A few years of hard pain should bring a welcome dose of reality all around. Oh, and throw out Prop 13 already, please. We would have $800K houses in months not years.

Posted By: carlthered | February 02 2009 at 12:43 AM



To: Les H who wrote (181168)2/2/2009 6:23:11 PM
From: Les HRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
Money-market fund proposals cause a stir
Group of Thirty's plan could have major impact on money-fund shareholders
By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:58 p.m. EST Feb. 2, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- When the Group of Thirty issued its proposals for reforming the financial industry last month, most of the focus was on the influential body's recommendations for capital markets. Lost in the shuffle was a plan that would radically change money-market mutual funds.

Tucked into three paragraphs amid an 82-page report was a suggestion that money-market funds should either let their net asset values float freely or convert to "special-purpose banks" -- steps that fund-industry representatives say would effectively kill money-market funds in their current form.

"If the recommendations are implemented, there will be no more money-market funds, period," said Paul Schott Stevens, president and chief executive of the Investment Company Institute, the fund industry's trade group.

The study and its recommendations came from a G30 subgroup: the Working Group on Financial Reform. The chair of the study, Paul Volcker, former Federal Reserve chairman, is slated to appear on Wednesday before the Senate Committee Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs to discuss the plan.

"If money-market funds provide bank-like services, then they should be organized like banks," said Stuart Mackintosh, executive director of the G30, a Washington-based body of well-known international financiers and academics.

Some fund industry executives dispute the premise of the study.

Charlie Morrison, senior vice president and leader of the money-market group at Fidelity Investments, said that in light of how the vast majority of fund firms coped during the market panic last fall, "this is an industry that's in extremely good shape."

Other observers argue that the G30's recommendations are misguided, and that in fact efforts should be directed at making banks more like money-market funds.

"It's an offense to money-market funds to call them any kind of banks," said Mercer Bullard, assistant professor of law at University of Mississippi and founder of consumer group Fund Democracy.

"Banks have lost billions of dollars," he added, "and money-market funds have proved them to be wasteful and inefficient. One IndyMac costs us more than all the money-market fund failures in the past and future combined."
The Federal Depository Insurance Corp. spent $9 billion in its takeover of the failed IndyMac, according to the U.S. Budget Watch Web site.

The right direction

Bullard said proposals from the Group of Thirty "should reflect money-market funds as the best way to provide an insured mattress for Americans' cash."

"There's a lot of uncertainty [in the industry] about whether this is the way to go," said Joan Ohlbaum Swirsky, a lawyer at the firm of Stradley Ronon, and a specialist in money-market fund regulation.

Swirsky questioned whether the approaches suggested by the Group would appeal to investors. If not, they could trigger a fresh run on money-market funds as investors cashed out of the sector.

"We don't want to do anything that depresses the price of money-market securities," she said.

Swirsky added that the proposal for the funds to convert to "special-purpose banks" was unclear. "There's no existing entity that's a special-purpose bank," she said. She also questioned how funds would transition investors if they had change from one type of entity to another.

The G30's Mackintosh said the report had intentionally avoided providing details. "It's not trying to give administrative instruction," he said. "These are high-level recommendations...that identify gaps in the existing [regulatory] structures and how to fix them."

Tighter regulation

In the introduction to its money-market recommendations, the report suggests money-market funds have "no capital, no supervision, and no safety net [and are] operating as large pools of maturity transformation and liquidity risk."

But the funds are subject to regulation: Rule 2a-7 of the Investment Company Act. The Rule governs the maturity length, credit quality and diversity of debt that money-market funds can hold.

Bullard said he believes that whatever problems money-market funds faced can for the most part be addressed by vigilant regulators.

"The Securities and Exchange Commission has shown that it's not competent to oversee a prudent regulatory model," he said. "The SEC was virtually blind" to the market problems unfolding over the course of last year, he added.

Bullard said that as well as enforcing Rule 2a-7 more vigorously, the SEC should examine top-performing money-market funds to make sure they aren't taking on too much risk to achieve those results. He also said funds should have to file their portfolios with the agency each day, so the SEC can screen their holdings and spot potential trouble.

Fidelity's Morrison said that he'd like to see small changes to Rule 2a-7, including tightening the credit standards and also mandating specific liquidity requirements.

"There were things we learned in the face of some of the challenges" of last fall. He also said that there needs to be renewed emphasis on best practices. Bullard echoed that idea, saying that fund boards should monitor a fund's net asset value to make sure its calculated holdings match market values.

Money-market funds don't have a spotless record. In September, The Reserve's Primary Fund became the first major fund to "break the buck" -- its net asset value falling below the $1 a share benchmark - and in the past year or so several fund sponsors used their own money, or were at least ready to jump in, to shore up their funds.

The ICI has a money-market working group headed by former Vanguard Group CEO Jack Brennan that is mulling reform proposals. Stevens said the group's plan will be published by the end of March.

Bullard said he'd also like to see a government-backed insurance program for money-market funds paid for by the industry that will backstop a fund if its value fell below $1 a share. But, he added, there should be conditions to ensure moral hazard -- for instance, if the fund broke the buck because it contravened Rule 2a-7, the government could reclaim its money.

That would provide enough regulation and also make proposals for floating NAV rates redundant, Bullard said.
Fidelity's Morrison said he doesn't see the need for any change, either insurance or floating fund, to how money-market funds operate, but some industry figures are open to the idea.
Paul Reisz, senior vice president at Pimco, a unit of Allianz, said he could envision prime money-market funds -- which can invest in corporate debt -- pegged to floating NAVs.
"Clients would get some kind of return, but there wouldn't be such pressure on fund firms," he said.

Banking opposition

The G30 report argues that money-market funds should change because they "mimic" the activity of banks. But, said Bullard, banks do this inefficiently because they use demand deposits, which could be redeemed at any moment, to make long-term investments.

"Paul Volcker has a history going back to the 1970s of trying to end money-market funds," said ICI's Stevens. "[Money-market funds] aren't in accordance with the traditional bank regulator's view of the way the world works."

"The report is full of strong banking regulator-speak," said Bullard. He said he wished the report had been "a little less disingenuous" about its motives.

While the study has no legislative clout, the member list of the Group of Thirty reads like a Who's Who of finance. As well as Volcker, members include Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council and assistant to President Barack Obama for Economic Policy. Stevens said the study was authored by Volcker and he didn't think it reflected either Geithner's or Summer's views.

marketwatch.com