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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/2/2009 10:51:02 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

Americans will not be spending like '06 for the remainder of this generation. It's the comfort zone theory. Retirement money: gone! So they will save, period. The ones that can. And those whose jobs have vaporized will not be spending, either. If they get a handout, they'll eat it.

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/3/2009 1:02:08 AM
From: Big Black Swan	4 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 71454

I know it's politically incorrect to ponder, but maybe frugality will be good for society. Maybe we'll value relationships over material goods, time well-spent rather than money thrown away, spiritual pursuits rather than mall pursuits. A society based on mindless consumerism would fail eventually, one way or another. Maybe that will be the silver lining of this catastrophe, putting us into a better place. So maybe we'll be happier in the end ... or am I just smoking some good stuff?

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/3/2009 5:02:52 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

"People saying americans will be up and spending like old times soon enough seem to know nothing of how history shows the cycle to frugality lasts AT LEAST 10 years--it is of one the most powerful behavior pivots in Humanity." We are in year 10 of that cycle, Max - SPX/gold ratio peaked in 1999 and dropped 80% since. Here is the website for real charts that define your cycle of frugality -g- pricedingold.com So, while the majority now believes 1929 just started, the answer is NO, it is Year ten of the cycle of frugality now. Unlike the Feds, gold does not lie. This is why the crisis is so severe. We are setting records in unemployment since the 80s, well, cause we are darn close to da secular bottom. Well, gold also says we still have quite some room and time to go to the downside still. However, that may just mean that gold soars. -g- Again, some. We are not talking decades now, as a decade of frugality has passed. We are talking secular bottom within 2-3 years. That means a crisis, then recovery. We are living in the age of fiat, and fiat distorts every statistics. -g-

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/3/2009 5:28:08 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

I am not saying it won't be painful now. To the contrary, very painful. I just disagree with so many looking at fiat based charts and crying out loud "1929". No, it's not. 2000=1929 in this cycle. We are in year 1932, and it has been painful for the middle class for good 10 years now. We just had a lost decade, are still going down, and it's unclear where the turn gonna be. As usual, with secular moves. DOW/gold ratio has room to drop 90% from here to a real secular bottom, even though it's already down 80% from the peak in 2000. And, most likely it will! -g-

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/3/2009 5:49:14 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

Charts do the talk better. This one is from Lance Lewis. The peak? 1999. The tentative secular bottom? 2-5 years, down 80-90% from here. 1 gold Oz could buy the DOW, wherever. Could be at 8000 -g- The DOW/gold ratio may also not reach 1 this time. While it bottomed at 2 in 1932 and 1 in 1980, there is no guarantee it will bottom at 0.5 this time (we are now around 9). It could do so much earlier, as 1980 was a major gold bubble. In general, when DOW/gold ratio is below 5, stocks are very cheap relative to hard assets. This has to be taken with a grain of salt, as they may and usually do get cheaper. -g- minyanville.com

To: LTK007 who wrote (17191)	2/3/2009 11:41:36 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 71454

If you read 1929 stuff, folks were pretty optimistic and had no clue. Not this time. Depression talk on CNN, in every major publication. What exactly did we have? 1 quarter of GDP drop. Isn't all this a little bit drastic? They say stocks normally bottom 2/3 of the time into recession. If recession ends this Summer, it would make it one of the longest since the 80-s, and the bull then should resume about now. It seems the biggest surprise in this market is ... recovery. -g-