To: Arthur Radley who wrote (11925 ) 10/24/1997 8:28:00 PM From: Marconi Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18263
TexasDude, Thank you for your interesting observations from the Oct. 23 y2k conference in Dallas. In summary, I suggest that the dearth of information about Z/MD was plateauing the decline in share price since May, the decline that had started in January. Observations indicate Z/MD for y2k are not going concerns. Because of the information about y2k and other y2k firms, Z/MD appears now to be continuing on their decline for lack of justifying information. Then Zitel would go from $20 to $10 by the end of December (from extrapolating the 1 yr chart), and that it will take another year of trading for the views of all investors to come to a consensus about y2k companies. Cayman investors remain a factor that could materially swing the stock price downward from present, whether fully converted (dilution) or no conversions (leveraged dilution) to date. Elaboration follows. Regards, MDR ************************************************************* Between Ed Rosen's March '97 y2k conference report:techstocks.com and Bill's (CR) drive by inspection of Zitel and Matradigm facilitiestechstocks.com andtechstocks.com and TexasDude's October 23 visit to the Dallas y2k conferencetechstocks.com I am convinced they expose a shell, unless Z/MD have obscure secret operations unreported to IRS, SEC, etc, (e.g., say Uzbekistan, and the results are caught up in their Soviet style bureaucracy, and they've just found out to their embarrassment that cash cannot be repatriated without a new round of paperwork which will take 3 to 15 months--boy, now I'm stooping low, too. Please forgive me.) [BTW, my wife lived in Tashkent, but is very CLEAR to point out she is a white Russian Christian from Ufa, Russia. The Uzbeks do have a lot of paperwork for just about everything. It was a feudal Muslim nation until the Soviets put in infrastructure for their own interests. Tashkent is a historically rich 2000-year-old city, dating from the time of Jesus Christ. It is a very different world there; some Western trappings came in since 1991.] And further lack of information will allow the share price to continue to decline. Either way, I would expect such information would have a similar effect as the positive but sobering report from VIAS recently. Outright lies from the firms could still be a brief flier, but I would think risky from a fraud point of view. Without justifying performance from now on, down she goes .... I was hoping to short at 40 if possible, now even 25 seems unlikely. I estimate a low probability, say less than 10% now, that further empty PR from Z/MD will have any ability to move them 5 points up or can last more than a week. These reports tell me these firms are not going concerns. Further material disclosure of Z/MD performance in the context of their competitive y2k environment I think I see some buying activity in Zitel, that would indicate covering some larger short positions (3000 or more shares). Unfortunately I have not reinstated my block trading feed. This clearing process alone, moderated over time, should unwind the stock price with a whimper. I plan to reset all but 1 of my covering buys to well under $5/sh. The next 3 sets of short interest figures should establish if this view is correct. We should know by the shares outstanding (annual on Oct 28 if I recall) how much conversion has happened. Cayman investors could be a material downside force. If Z/MD go for more investment money for shares, the deal will have to be on terms less favorable than Caymen, so the downward pressure would be even greater. If the Cayman investors have not converted much, has anyone been following the patterns of options this year so that now they would have the experience to judge if some unusual dichotomy between written calls and purchased puts appeared, as a possible lead that the Cayman investors are readying a significant conversion? Thanks to all for your efforts to bring up useful information and thoughts. Best regards to all, MDR