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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SiouxPal who wrote (159739)	2/4/2009 8:03:49 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 361656

Almost 4 years,and I haven't taught you a thing. Finite planet, dude. There ain't that much room, when you also have oil and uranium and coal and gold and silver and... all hiding in our little blue ball. I'll let Tim tell you about NG and the climate, but anything with fossil carbon you dig up and burn ain't clean. Not til you get the CO2 out. (Can't do that right now, eh? Pesky thing, technology.) Which you make when you burn it. Cuz that's the way combustion works. “US natural gas production is declining despite a large increase in the number of producing wells . The US natural gas peak was at 22 Tcf/a in 1973 with about 100,000 wells; 2005 production was at 19 Tcf/a with 400,000 wells.” -- Jean LaHerrere, ASPO-France energyandcapital.com hubbertpeak.com North America == This is when things start looking grim. Production is neatly mirroring Discovery with a 23 year lag. This contrasts to Conventional Oil where the production curve doesn't mimic the discovery the same way. While Conventional Oil production at peak will be around 75 Mb/d, the discovery peak went over 120 Mb/d. Natural Gas Production looks like a smoothed version of Discovery, less noisy, but with the same background trends at the same yearly ratios. Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn't hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff? theoildrum.com == Recent US peak predictions Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American gas peak would occur in 2007[18] Although Hubbert had acknowledged multiple peaks in oil production in Illinois, he used single peak models for oil and gas production in the US as a whole. In 2008, Tad Patzek of the University of California rejected the single-peak model, and showed the multiple peaks of past US gas production as the sum of five different Hubbert curves. He concluded that new technology has more than doubled gas reserves. His figure 15 shows gas production declining steeply after a probable peak in known cycles in 2008. However, he refrained from predicting a date after which gas production would begin terminal decline, but noted: "The actual future of US natural gas production will be the sum of known Hubbert cycles, shown in this paper, and future Hubbert cycles." and warned: "The current drilling effort in the US cannot be sustained without major new advances to increase the productivity of tight formations."[19] According to Western Gas Resources Inc., the North American peak happened in 2001.[citation needed] In 2005 Exxon's CEO Lee Raymond said to Reuters that "Gas production has peaked in North America."[20] The Reuters article continues to say "While the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas has climbed about 20 percent over the last year and prices are at record highs, producers have been struggling to raise output." North American natural gas production indeed peaked in 2001 at 27.5 TCF per year, and declined to 26.1 TCF by 2005, but then rose again in 2006 and 2007 to a new high of 27.9 TCF in 2007.[21] As of June 2008, the US Energy Information Administration projected US gas production to peak in 2022.[22] en.wikipedia.org Unconventional? I don't think it is our messiah, but maybe. Better start taking baths, and catch yer fart bubbles in mason jars, just in case theoildrum.com