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To: Larry L who wrote (107)10/24/1997 3:02:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 29987
 
Larry, call me fantastic if you like, but my modesty will keep me safe from your blandishments. Actually, modesty is one of my best points. To say I don't have any more idea than the rest of you [you speaking for everyone else by the look of it even though I suspect they have their own opinions] is not quite right.

This idea is a common one: that all ideas are of equal value and nobody has any more idea than others. I beg to differ. That is why I'm here. I have ideas. I check them against what others say, looking for the guaranteed defects in my thinking, knowledge or understanding, then put my money where my mouth is. Or, occasionally, put other people's money where my mouth is by running up a margin account. They are too scared or something to invest their money themselves so lend it to me at the absurdly low price of 7.25% to manage for them. My commission is whatever I can get better than that.

If my ideas are better than others, I make money. If they are worse, I hand the responsibility for managing the money I had over to somebody else who bet on a better idea. This is part of the function of the stockmarket - to assign value.

I think that the LEO subscribers will do what consumers always do, which is seek the best value for themselves. Economics - supply, demand, competition and all that stuff, will sort out who is the best value supplier. There is NOT huge demand such that anyone supplying a satellite service will make pots of gold. There is limited demand and limited supply in the short term - but supply can be expanded sufficiently in relatively few years to quite quickly reduce prices.

The competitive, value providing, fast and accurate marketer will make the money. The others will become also rans.

It is NOT a lolly scramble from heaven. We don't have 1-2 years to get our product and pricing at levels that will sell before the real competition kicks in. You too are fantastic LarryL! The competition is already well underway.

There is a guy called George Gilder. He talks about there being at any time a big supply of low cost something or other. And a limitation of something else. When these systems launch, there is instantly a big supply of network time available and a shortage of handsets. That means the handsets get to make the money for the first year or two. Then, as the network fills, the competitive pricing of it rises and the price of handsets falls.

A system that is half full half way through its life will fail in the competitive race to best satisfy subscribers.

Somebody will be right and somebody will be wrong. You better not try to hide in the crowd with "the rest of you". Just how many of "you" are there anyway? If you hedge by buying both, you are admitting you have no idea, but hedging guarantees you will be wrong on one count. The person who has the courage of their convictions and is RIGHT will do much better. The fact that you have no idea which system to back doesn't mean that nobody does.

NOW is the time to speculate what the consumer will do. In fact, two years ago was the time. NOW the prices of both stocks are way up!

Mqurice

techstocks.com
A good post from Mike Doyle on price allocation of resources leading on to intellectual property rights. I hope he'll do more on subscriber pricing of networks. "CURRENT PRICE IS ...."
Thanks Mike!