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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33461)	2/6/2009 10:32:38 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78714

I am trying to contain myself and buy or add only the stocks I'm interested in when they are at/near 12-mo. lows. So we are not that different after all. ;) I could take an umbrage that you are not including NKE and COH, but I won't. :) Yes, I still hold CHME and LTUS. Both of them have accounts receivable and funny business sort of issues, so I won't add. But then even AOB has issues. I'll throw out here the whole list of my Chinese ownings in case someone wants to comment: ACTS, AOB, CHCG, CHME, CPHI, CYXI, GFRE, GU, LTUS, SDTH, SNDA (that's a blue chip and expensive), WH. My buy list in China would be WH (lower than here) and SDTH. I think they are more - what's the word - "reliable" or "predictable" or "understandable" and may also benefit from infrastructure stimulus in China. I am still considering your JST. Regarding DIS. Your reasoning is somewhat right. Let me throw out couple of numbers: 2008 ROE was ~13.5%, 2008 ROIC ~10%, 2008 ROIC with intangibles subtracted from equity: 20%. I am not looking at the last quarter, which is Q1/2009 on purpose. So the only number which looks respectable is 2008 ROIC with intangibles subtracted from equity: 20%. But then I compare it to JNJ which has ROE (and ROIC since their cash and debt cancels) of 29% and ROIC with intangibles subtracted from equity 77%! Of course, DIS is much cheaper than JNJ on P/Book basis, so earnings/EV are comparable between them. And Disney's PE is cheaper since it does not account for debt. So I guess I understand why it could be a buy here. I still can't convince myself that it's a buy for me. :)