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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (101003)	2/6/2009 4:42:34 PM
From: LTK007	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

A professional trading service i utilize to save on my work time said today what i feel, and that they are NOT confident about any call they make at this time. They see a bounce set-up in formation now but says this market demands you not get "cocky" about a sustained up move. My view favors we REPEAT the Bear Channel we are in as in as entered it in 200O, that the rule of lower highs and lowers lows will be in place until the end of the bear. That channel(started in 2000) was NOT violated until SPX broke 943 in May 2003. i am calling the final bottom will not be in before SPX hits 450. One of biggest shoes yet to collapse is Commercial Real Estate. i also favor those that believe Citi and BAC are too BIG to Save. This is another shock that the Government will try to hide until they have no choice to announce Another Emergency. Faber feels there will be severe geo-political forces at play ahead. Faber says China is starting to exit the U.S. and that will increase over time. All and all, there are numerous bad undercurrents that will erode any seeming recovery. i freely admit i just sigh and shake my head as the optimist start popping up, more and more. But is utterly predictable. Those that keep yapping that there is so much negativity about they then deduce, voila! this must be The Bottom haven't really checked matters out, imo,as the reality is the vast majority of Money Managers are BULLISH. That MFs cash to equity is still a salivatingly bullish 5.25%. One can NEVER measure sentiment by message boards,imo, look to the money managers, and they are extremely bullish and their track record stinks. i have said if 450 is not hit before 5/15/2010 i will apologicze to the optimist---that gives me 16 months:) Glickenhaus revealed 4 of his prime holdings are NM NMM EPD and BWP, btw(he bought after their recent lows in Nov/Dec--or whatever). Max