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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (182262)	2/6/2009 5:22:42 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

um, you need lumber to build houses, right? look at what the ceo of weyerhauser had to say today...i don't think i have ever heard such a completely negative outlook: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- One of the largest lumber-producing companies in North America provided a dire outlook Friday that included more deterioration in the housing market and turmoil in the credit market. Weyerhaeuser Co. said home-building activity is at its lowest level since 1959, with new-housing starts in 2008 at 620,000, down 37% from about 1 million in 2007. "Not only have we seen a 77% drop in housing starts since 2005's peak level of 1.7 million, but the pace of this decline has accelerated," Chief Executive Dan Fulton said on a conference call with analysts, following the release of the company's fourth-quarter results. In response to the housing slump, the company shut down veneer and lumber mills in Alabama, letting go about 300 employees as it cuts capacity and reduces cost. Just last month, Federal Way, Wash.-based Weyerhaeuser said it would close two mills in Washington, resulting in a reduction of 221 employees. But it's not just new-housing starts: turmoil in the credit markets and fear of unemployment has caused people to roll back or cancel home repair and remodeling projects, as consumer confidence sinks to new lows, Fulton said. "As a result, wood products are barely moving, and what is selling is going for prices substantially below third quarter levels," the CEO said. "These figures demonstrate the complete capitulation of the consumer in the last half of the fourth quarter." Weyerhaeuser said its loss in the fourth quarter grew to $1.21 billion, or $5.73 a share, compared to a loss of $63 million, or 30 cents a share, in the same period last year. Net sales in the period plunged more than 50% to $1.78 billion from $3.94 billion. Excluding items, Weyerhaeuser said it would have posted a loss of 99 cents a share for the 2008 fourth quarter. Analysts, on average, expected a loss of 55 cents a share on revenue of $1.83 billion, according to a survey by FactSet Research. Weyerhaeuser ended the quarter with $2.5 billion in cash and short-term investments. Shares of Weyerhaeuser, after being down most of Friday's session, ended up 67 cents at $28.03. Over the last 52 weeks, the stock is down nearly 60%. The annual home-selling season unofficially began after the Super Bowl on Sunday, and to drum up more potential home buyers, builders such as Toll Brothers Inc. and Lennar Corp. have begun offering more incentives with mortgage rates well below the national average. marketwatch.com.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (182262)	2/6/2009 5:34:03 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

from mike morgan....he seems genuinely shocked that politcians lips move=lies realestateandhousing2.blogspot.co.... Obama . . . Hypocrite or Psychopathic Liar Despite Obama’s pledge to control lobbyists, I am being bombarded this week about the efforts being made in Washington on behalf of the builders. It’s not just bad, it’s downright criminal. We ARE going to see a huge Builder-Bill pass as part of the StimUseless package. I’ve received more communication about the lobbyists efforts on behalf of builders, than anything else in the last few months. It’s stunning just how powerful they are and how these guys have both the Republicans and the Democrats in their pockets. The sad thing is . . . Washington is not helping homeowners, but they are actually going to make the problem worse. 1 - By keeping the builders in business, they will continue to add inventory that we don’t need. 2 - The proposals we are seeing are builder and banker friendly at the expense of the taxpayer. 3 - The proposals appear to be homeowner friendly on the surface, but long term the effects are devastating. Trying to keep people in homes they cannot afford is a losing proposition. Lower interest rates and providing complicated tax credits will backfire. It sounds good, so both sides vote for this . . . because it helps them get re-elected. Moreover, no one will be able to point a finger two years, from now, because what these crooks are doing will be lost in the shuffle. This is why the builders are rallying. I obviously underestimated the failure of Obama to honor anything he seems to have been elected to do, and I underestimated the power of the lobbyists these builders have hired . . . with our money. But the end result is the same. The builders will eventually move lower, as most of them will be out of business. As we move into the Depression, which Obama seems to be guaranteeing on a daily basis with his inactions and turnover of government to the lobbyists he said he loathes, the housing market will deteriorate further, harder and into an abyss that nothing but rock bottom despair will turn around. One final note. The level of foreclosures coming through our residential real estate business is at a peak now. I am turning away 75% of the emails we receive with foreclosures!!!! I still want to be short the builders, but it may take longer than initially expected to close out all of our trades at the profits we want. With all that is going on, I would wait till next week to short more. Wait till this news hits the media, and then you can short more. P.S. I sent this to one of my information sources today. . . . After receiving your stuff, I puked, and then I decided to put something out for my clients. Obama is not only a hypocrite, I think he is a psychopathic liar. He doesn’t even realize he’s lying. For him it is so natural, that it is his very essence. Just think about when he said he sat in the church for 20 years and never heard any of Reverend Wright’s garbage. We are in deep trouble. Obama has only put out one truthful statement . . . we are headed for a catastrophe. ----------

To: ChanceIs who wrote (182262)	2/6/2009 10:12:47 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Toll Brothers CEO got $8.8M in '08 compensation >>>Talk about a parasite!!! Talk about a leach!!! Talk about stooooopid!!!! Hey Robert....aren't you watching what Thain is going through right now and saying...'There but for the grace of God.' What monstrous arrogance!!! And he no doubt has been in Washington pressing for a bailout!!! Company lost $300 million last year and he paid himself $8.8 million. Hey!!! I am a conservative, but enough is enough. Hang the b&*tard. Besides I paid attention in history class when the French Revolution was discussed. People like Toll are asking for a repeat and I won't be left unscathed.<<< By ALEX VEIGA – 1 hour ago The CEO of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. received a compensation package last year valued at $8.8 million, with the bulk of his pay coming from stock options, according to an analysis of a regulatory filing Friday. In addition to a salary of $1.3 million, Toll Brothers Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert I. Toll received stock option awards granted in December 2007 that had an estimated value of $7.4 million, according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The executive also received other compensation valued at $108,139, including $58,048 in tax and financial planning assistance, $22,845 to cover car and gasoline expenses, $11,550 in retirement plan contributions, $9,215 for life insurance and disability premiums, $5,255 for club dues and $1,226 for Internet and communication costs. Toll did not receive a cash bonus or non-equity incentive plan compensation. The Associated Press calculations of total pay include executives' salary, bonus, incentives, perks, above-market returns on deferred compensation and the estimated value of stock options and awards granted during the year. The calculations don't include changes in the present value of pension benefits, and they sometimes differ from the totals companies list in the summary compensation table of proxy statements filed with the SEC. Like other homebuilders, Horsham, Pa.-based Toll has been struggling to sell homes amid falling home prices, rising foreclosures and tighter mortgage lending — a combination that has exacerbated the glut of unsold homes on the market. Initial signs that 2008 might mark the bottom of the housing slump soon faded when the U.S. financial crisis worsened in September and unemployment began to climb, scaring off many would-be homebuyers in the final months of the year. Although Toll managed to stem the size of its write-downs in the last quarter of 2008, the market doldrums prompted management to warn that it expected its revenue in fiscal 2009 will be significantly lower than in 2008. For the fiscal year ended Oct. 31, 2008, Toll posted a loss of $297.8 million, or $1.88 a share. That compares with a profit of $35.7 million, or 22 cents a share, in the prior fiscal year. Excluding write-downs, the builder earned $232 million, or $1.41 a share. Total revenue in fiscal 2008 was $3.16 billion, down 32 percent from $4.65 billion in the prior year. Toll shares rose 6.8 percent over the course of 2008. Peaking at $28 in September, the stock plunged to $13.55 in November amid the financial market meltdown, but recovered somewhat to end the year at $21.43. Shares have slipped, however, in the first weeks of 2009. On Friday the stock added $1.69, or about 9.3 percent, to close at $19.88.