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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (43273)	2/8/2009 9:04:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95565

<AMAT price with SIA sales is also shown. Here the relationship is not so clear.> The semi capex/semi sales ratio has declined, over the time period of your chart. This decline is permanent, and independant of the shorter-term cycles. <I'm reading Nassim Taleb's "The black swan"> 2000 to 2008: "The Gorilla Game" to "The Black Swan". So, what will be the best-seller for 2010?: "Guns and Gold: Surviving the Apocalypse" by Max Midnight, or "Health, Wealth, and Wisdom for Everyone" by Sally Sunshine

To: Gottfried who wrote (43273)	2/8/2009 9:56:17 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95565

Pam, I have a chart of AMAT with SEMI bookings [below]. It shows price anticipates SEMI bookings by a few months. Note how in early 2001 price was wrong [expecting a V bottom in SEMI bookings]. Since SEMI bookings bottoms are U-shaped now, price will probably give us more than one chance to buy low. AMAT price with SIA sales is also shown. Here the relationship is not so clear. Well, in that case the question is whether Nov '08 lows reflect the low prices this downturn and if we will revisit them in the coming months? If we have a U-shaped bottom for SEMI bookings, we should be revisiting those lows again in the coming weeks/months, at the very least! The Black Swan: Yes, heard a lot about this one on Bloomberg radio. Hope to read it as soon as I am finished reading the one I am reading right now. So what he is saying (his analogy) is that the market knows when it is going to bottom out but it will takes us all by surprise when it happens!