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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (103439)	2/7/2009 7:50:07 PM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 542007

You have followed Krugman and read his book published in 99 was it? Did he predict the housing collapse? Steve, I didn't read the book until the version that just came out. I have no easy way to know the contents of the 99 version versus the more recent one since he says he did a very large rewrite of the original. I doubt he saw the real estate bubble, though, at that point since I don't think there was enough evidence around to indicate one. Writing in 98 and 99, he would have been focused on the tech bubble but the book, as written, reads as if he was concerned about the possible depression scenarios of the fast movement of global capital. He looked at the similarities and building crises from the 87 crash, through 93, the Asian crisis in 98 (I think), the LTCM crisis and the Russian collapse (he sees the latter as a continuation of the Asian crisis). He thought the rapid movement of global capital coupled with increasing leverage (witness LTCM) led to a sickness in the system (I think that was the metaphor).