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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (43303)	2/9/2009 1:14:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95567

Hi Bob, I agree with you that there will come a time when demand for "chip count" will be higher than ever. Companies like INTC will make better and better chips and usage, as you point out, will "skyrocket" in the future. However, the chip companies are also so innovative and efficient that revenue, while it will rise, will probably be "capped" at some level close to the 20 to 24B a month level of the past several years for the foreseeable future. Looking at the chart, there has been a "topping action" in revenue for chip sales for the past 2 to 3 years. The 20B per month level that has been a "floor" for so long was broken this past month(Dec) with sales dropping into the 17B range. Jan sales will be lower - how much lower will be known in about 3 weeks. How low will sales eventually go? - no one knows but it could go to the 10 to 14B range before it bottoms just as it did from 01 to the 04 time frame. The YoY change in sales will most probably last similar to the last downturns shown in the chart, ie, 10 to 16 months. That means it will be near the end of 09 into the 10 area before we see positive YoY sales, and even then, it will be at a lower level than the recent 20 to 24B range. Once we get to 2010, higher revenue levels can continue to be achieved, but how much higher on a monthly basis? There is a good article that discusses the outlook for 2009 at blog.trade-radar.com In the article this statement is made: "Adding their two cents, Gartner chimes in with their own prediction. They are forecasting that semiconductor revenues will total US$219.2 billion, a 16.3% decline from 2008." We all know estimates can change, but that's a long way to go to get to the positive side.

To: robert b furman who wrote (43303)	2/10/2009 9:55:31 AM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95567

BIG news from Intel. It plans to invest $7B over the next two years to build new factories in Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona to build 32nm devices! Full story biz.yahoo.com The story says "The money will pay the salaries of about 7,000 "high-wage, high-skill" jobs that already exist at those plants." I wonder if Intel waited for Obama to announce plans to reward companies to keep jobs in the US. Sort of "get in good with da new prez...." If so, others could have held back announcements of good news until they get lower taxes and stimulus announced.... Maybe some will use the Intel announcement to bash Senators over the head with by saying "Intel is keeping jobs in the US and so will other companies if they are given help."