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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43348)	2/10/2009 11:39:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

AMAT 1Q09 Conference Call notes: How bad is it? Our leading customers say this is the worst industry period they have ever experienced....This is the worst downturn in the history of the semi-equip business. Fab utilization for foundries and memory is at historic lows, from 30 to 70%. Some fabs are shut down. There is no demand for capacity additions. Tech additions are modest. We're planning for a prolonged period of weakness. In Display, factory utilization is at 30-40%. Panel inventory appears to be decreasing, but we expect no upturn this year in equipment orders. Energy: 2 more SunFabs were "signed-off" this quarter (the first one last quarter, 5 in future quarters). SunFab revenue is trending higher, but credit market conditions (we anticipate), will cause a gap in new orders for SunFabs. Customers can't get financing. We will continue to invest strongly in this sector, which means expenses will not be reduced to breakeven in our solar business. 94M$ in cancelled orders, mainly from semiconductor companies. Financing for the 5 SunFabs being built, is secured. Additional restructuring activities are being evaluated. Breakeven (using their non-GAAP accounting) will be reduced to 1.2B$/Q in total revenue, by the end of F2009. Memory price increases in the last few weeks are due to supply decrease, not demand increase. 10% of memory capacity has been permanently taken offline. Sunfab (thin-film) is doing better than crystalline silicon. Anyone who is thinking about (getting into the business of) thin-film is talking to us. There needs to be consolidation in the semi-equip industry, but it'll take a "triggering event", to make it happen. appliedmaterials.com my comment: I've been listening to AMAT's conference calls, intermittently for 11 years now, and I continue to be impressed by management's competence. I heard no evasive answers, and I am certain I can trust the numbers in their SEC filings. They seem prepared to deal with any contingency, including extreme ones (such as current conditions).