Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (9432)	10/24/1997 1:00:00 PM
From: LemurHouse	Respond to of 70976

This is quite something. I'm holding tight and am ready to buy a lot more as soon as this thing looks reasonably stable. Its in free-fall for now though, that's for sure.

To: KM who wrote (9432)	10/24/1997 1:55:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tru, You are right on not waiting for Morgan's cc. It's obvious that cc will be a bit less cheery due to recent slowdown in Asia. I mean, not even Jim Morgan's crystal ball is that good. Good conservative forecasters that they are, they must take in their '98 horns a bit. They will be forced to lower Asian sales estimates for sure. Does that mean Cary's going to sell if it gaps down 7 points in the usual institutional stampede? Absolutely not. Sensible fellow that he is, he will decide that the market has already discounted the bad news and buy more on the dip, finding a way to interpret his remarks as bullish.<g> Cary will gradually realize that Mr. Morgan's cc is a coincident indicator, not a leading one. Remember, the equips bottomed in July '96. Cary didn't wait for Morgan to tell him to buy. He waited for blood in the street and got on board during the summer at progressively lower levels. Morgan didn't blow the trumpet until November. Cary bought again, but I believe he paid higher prices that time. (Please correct me Cary, if I'm wrong). Long term investors meanwhile can patiently accumulate positions since Asian weakness is of a temporary nature. I don't see how it impacts Cary's Y2K scenario. Secular trend is strong positive, but if you can time the cycle, all the better. <g> SC