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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (4918)	2/12/2009 9:32:41 AM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Where was that chunk of revenue from last quarter? A licensee (NV Baekert) decided they wanted to terminate their license, whereupon REFR suddenly decided Baekert owed them about $1 million in "back royalties". This despite never having carried an accounts receivable balance anywhere near that level. But this was chump change to Baekert, so they paid. Voila, instant quarterly profit. The bulk of the remaining revenue comes from a "technology subscription" deal with Hitachi Chemical, which, to anyone's knowledge, hasn't produced a scrap of new technology. Hitachi is nevertheless on the hook there for a couple more quarters at about $100K each. Is it worth a shot shorting them in your opinion? A short at this level will eventually be profitable, but based on past history it may well be a very long and painful ride getting there from here. The last pump ran for almost nine months and hit $17 at the peak, so budget accordingly. Oh, and if they ever show off SPD on a bus, that's the signal that the pump is over.