To: Travis_Bickle who wrote (160498 ) 2/12/2009 3:54:45 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 362301 Ford Will Need to Seek Bailout, Credit Swaps Suggest (Update1) By Shannon D. Harrington Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swaps traders are demanding as much to protect against a Ford Motor Co. default as they are for General Motors Corp., a sign investors are convinced the automaker will need to follow its bigger rival in seeking government aid. The cost to protect Ford debt for five years has jumped eight percentage points in the past two weeks to 83 percent upfront, the same as GM contracts, according to CMA DataVision, a London-based market data provider. The price means that to protect $10 million of Ford bonds for five years, it would cost $8.3 million upfront in addition to $500,000 annually. The contracts have risen each day since Jan. 28, the day before Ford posted its worst ever annual loss and tapped its entire $10.1 billion credit line after consuming $5.5 billion in cash in the fourth quarter. Investors are growing concerned that Ford is spending too much cash and is too debt laden to survive without government help or without reducing debt by getting bondholders to give up some claims in exchange for other securities. “The reality is there’s not a lot of room for error,” said Rod Lache, a Deutsche Bank analyst in New York. “Our cash burn expectations bring them closer to minimal cash levels by the end of this year. And the company has a lot of debt and, many analysts including us, think it’s too much to be viable.” Credit-default swaps, which investors use to hedge against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, pay the buyer face value if a company defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. No Aid “We believe we can work with all our stakeholders to ensure that Ford restructures along with the rest of the industry and remains competitive,” Bill Collins, a Ford spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement today. “It would be premature to speculate on the possible outcomes.” Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally told analysts and investors on a conference call last month that the Dearborn, Michigan-based company wouldn’t need government aid in a U.S. auto market that meets the company’s projections. Ford expects Americans to buy 11.5 million to 12.5 million cars and light trucks this year. Detroit-based GM forecasts 2009 U.S. industrywide auto sales of 10.5 million units. Collins said in the e-mail today that “based on current planning assumptions,” the company has enough liquidity without a government loan. That may be the case, Lache said. “They have sufficient liquidity to last a few more quarters,” he said. Dwindling Cash Ford said its available cash fell $21 billion last year to $13.4 billion. It has $38 billion in bonds and loans coming due by 2011, according to Bloomberg data. GM received $13.4 billion in government loans, which the company has said it needs to stay out of bankruptcy. To keep the loans, the carmaker has to report progress in negotiating a debt restructuring with bondholders and union officials to the U.S. Treasury on Feb. 17. Chrysler LLC received a $4 billion loan and faces the same deadline. Ford fell 9 cents to $1.76 as of 3:36 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares had lost 71 percent in the past year before today. Ford is the second-biggest U.S.-based automaker after GM. To contact the reporter on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net Last Updated: February 12, 2009 15:37 EST