SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (46377)2/15/2009 1:27:16 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217615
 
hello pezz, today's report: should have saved so, and perhaps the same methodology will work out going forward:

start date 1982 january: gold high, t-bill low, stock low
end date, 2009 january: gold flat, t-bill high, stock nowhere
duration: 28 years

I made three calculations, to determine the relative astuteness of three different ways to prepare for golden years by the man on the street and woman about town, a typical baby boomer / boomerette, by way of annual set-asides in gold, yearly put-away in S&P 500 index, and every 12-months lock-ups in 10-years T-bills held to maturity, all taking account of re-investment of maturing bonds, and fudging same of dividends / interest flows, taxes, management fees, carries, storage etc.

Close enough for government work on a foggy Sunday.

To introduce some realism, I did the calculations for three different savings profiles

(i) A nominally flat annual contribution (10k, 10k … etc)
(ii) A 5% increase in annual contribution (10k, 10.5k … so on and so forth)
(iii) A doubling of the annual contribution every 5th years (10k/yr for 5 years, 20k/yr for next 5 years, 40k/yr for … ad infinitum ad nauseam

And, the results are:

Current value of excess savings and surplus capital
Savings profile/asset class
Flat rate (280k total contribution)
Gold 688,862
T-bills 839,859
S&P500 650,629

5% annual increase (584k total contribution)
Gold 1,375,478
T-bills 1,357,976
S&P500 1,005,364

2x every 5th year (2,050k total contribution)
Gold 4,333,374
T-bills 3,331,296
S&P500 2,347071

Conclusion: gold wins
Recommendation: GetGobsofGold
Suggestions: PreyonPilesofPlatinum, StoreStacksofSilver

Cheers, TJ



To: pezz who wrote (46377)2/16/2009 4:32:04 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217615
 
hello pezz, today's action:

(i) receive Message 25416261 a 'forced loan' document, and luckily it is 300 odd years late by snail mail, but am guessing similar documents will be issued here, there, everywhere, soon enough to matter;

(ii) managed to hunt up very few 2009 panda gold coins from the official distributor - i filled at very small percentage of my asked for quantity; and

(iii) managed to hunt up some kangaroos at the hang seng bank hq. while there, saw a young lady filling up her bag with two handful of gold bars - i sense we are moving into a new and more interesting phase of the gold revolution.

cheers, tj



To: pezz who wrote (46377)2/18/2009 10:14:37 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217615
 
hello pezz, tonight's report:

(i) closed out this srs trade Message 25312770 "i just got confirmation that SRS April 50 puts were shorted for me at 12.3/shr" at 3.6/share and recognized enough to underwrite easter break in paris, and pay for skiing in austria before break; and

(ii) closed out tbt position entered here Message 25245991 and there Message 25254745 at 44.80/shr for sliver gain

will re-enter srs space soon enough, and hold off on tbt for a bit or two or three, until such time the empire looks dire more immediately; must let enthusiasm rule over logic ;0)

cheers, tj