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To: Juniper who wrote (1213)	10/24/1997 2:53:00 PM
From: David Aegis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

Juniper, thanks for the excellent analysis of SVGI viv-a-vis the rest of the industry. While I think the entire group is oversold and that the industry recovery is still intact, SVGI in particular remains well positioned. I would add the following comments made on the CYMI conference call: ..End user demand for DUV is strong. Semiconducter manufacturers continue to ask DUV equipment makers for more tools. The equip. makers may not be able to meet this demand. Bob Akins, CYMI's CEO, also reported comments from an unnamed CYMI customer (and DUV supplier...SVGI? ASMLF??) as follows: ..DUV demand for 1998 should be in the area of 700 machines. The industry would probably not be able to meet that demand. Semiconducter manufacturers are pulling in orders of .25 micron machines to get a leg up on 64 mb DRAMs. The product life cycle for 64 mb is expected to be shorter than 16 mb, and first mover advantage is being viewed as important in moving down the learning curve. IMHO, the CYMI conference call confirms comments made on other conference calls such as KLA/Tencor. The bear market story about a DRAM driven double dip downturn is not supported by the available news. The market is going to do what it will do in the short term. I am looking for November of '97 to be a repeat of November '96. --David

To: Juniper who wrote (1213)	10/24/1997 9:33:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

Juniper, thanks, that was very well thought-out. I wouldn't put too much faith in the BTB, though, if the DRAM fabs run out of money and push back equipment orders, the billings are a lot less meaningful. The problems with Asia and the DRAM overcapacity are potentially serious and could get worse before they get better. The Cymer people haven't quite grasped the possibility of a downside yet. But if you want to be in an equipment co., SVG is starting to make more and more sense. I've been telling everyone for a month to get out of wafer fabs and wait, but I got caught with SVGI and a fistful of TER at 48-52. I'm holding them both.

To: Juniper who wrote (1213)	10/24/1997 11:08:00 PM
From: HoodBuilder	Respond to of 2946

Juniper-minor correction March contracts are NOT leaps they're options

To: Juniper who wrote (1213)	10/26/1997 4:15:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

<I bought more stock this morning, reasoning that it was getting beaten down by association rather than deservedly> Great point...and down as much or more than the group for a stock that has far more upside (and risk). There are march options but they arent LEAPS...no long terms in SVGI. Options have been "reasonable" but I was out Thur & Fri (what days to be out!) and heard there were big "put" buyers which could cause premium to increase dramatically. Options are priced based on their "iplied volatility" versus the "actual volatility" of the stock...if the implied is higher than the expected actual....they are overvalued. An example was Cymer where the implied volatility got over 100 due to call and put buyers overwhelming those willing to sell the premium. You can get a pricing model (the Black Scholes option model... of recent Nobel award fame) at CBOE.com I believe... I would never buy options without pricing them first...this is how my firm makes all its $....public rushing in to buy "FAT" options. DAK