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To: average joe who wrote (71128)	2/17/2009 2:43:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

What matters is the frontal area rather than the number of pieces. At first, I wondered whether so many fragments would form that it would become like a chain reaction, but thinking about it further, I decided it's a fizzer. The report on the cloud of debris being mostly still in the same orbit [more or less] can't be true because of conservation of momentum and orbital mechanics. Most of it has to fall down with not much staying at the same altitude [other than big lumps which didn't get much force exerted on them during the crash] and not much going into higher orbits though some would be flicked upwards only to fall down again due to slower speed. The rest of Iridium shouldn't be in danger. Mqurice