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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Kern who wrote (85445)	2/15/2009 9:35:08 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Used cars are robust - car values are up $1500 from December.Trucks and SUV's are up $3000-$4000 from December!! This is a needed valuation adjustment for new vehicle sales to begin to regain annualized sales volume. GM,Chrysler and Ford have all reponded to the lower sales rate with - you guessed it, inordinately large price increases. INSANE MARKETING !!! That being said ,their is method to their madness as big incentives are easily offered up with big price increases already built in. Of course with viability plans being conjured up next week,NO DOMESTIC MANUFACTURER, wants to reference increasing sales as they plead the blues to the UAW,Dealersm and Senate for capital loans and bailouts. My bet is very aggressive incentives will turn the sales rate on its head after a bailout and UAW concessions are pried out of the UAW union's cold greedy striking hands. Then Obama will pay back the UAW, by passing this pass card union vote law that will force the level playing field (unionization of the Japanese and S.Korean) transplants in the USA. I started working for GM when I was 19 at UAW wages - they were huge in my limited experience. The Union doesn't gives a rats arse about the real wage - their power comes from dues paying rank and file members.The more memebers the more powerful! The rest is rhetoric. So they take a wage hit on the domestics and gain all the transplants - what scenario do you think Walter Ruther ah excuse me Goettelfinger would prefer that his legacy states? I rest my case. Service and body shop plods along and used cars is keeping me on the road. We need to get auto loans securitized again for any volume to ever get regained. Banks and credit unions are doing more loans than they ever did on a reduced unit volume count of 30-40%. It is the absence of securitized loans and funding that has eliminated the capability of lending to lower sub-prime credit challenged borrowers. This is where the hole in auto sales are. If securitization does not reinvigorate credit lending to Fica scores below 620 -then volume will be restricted until those with poor credit and negative equity have saved their way into shopping with more money down and MAKING A SMARTER BUY. I suspect that the reality will be somewhere in between the two extremes and it will be a better world for it.IMHO By then, there will be fewer dealers and only the lean and capitalized will survive. One thing for sure in the Houston market's the three biggest Chevy dealers have been shut down!! The business model of big inventories and big advertising which appeals to the minority and less sophisitcated buyers is officially dead - another good thing in my humble opinion. Thanks for asking and "Who do you know that wants to buy a car? <smile> Bob