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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (101403)	2/16/2009 9:23:19 PM
From: pogohere	3 Recommendations Respond to of 110194

I'm not so inclined. And I'm not worried about what the average punter perceives as inevitable. The oil supply is in about the same shape as the gold supply: there won't be enough to go around at current prices given the bubble in US govt paper. I leave the attempt to analyze the oil markets to guys like Henry Groppe and the gold markets to guys like Jim Sinclair and Bob Hoye. Martin Armstrong is in a class by himself (as well as a cell). See his "It's Just Time" at: contrahour.com

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (101403)	2/16/2009 9:33:00 PM
From: TH	6 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Hawkmoon, <I'm more inclined to believe that gold is in the same form of bubble mentality that we saw with oil last summer.> That is because there is a fundamental error in your thinking. Oil ran to X based on perceived supply/demand issues. When those demand assumptions proved false, based on the global slowdown (and triggered perhaps by a dollar turn), oil proved to be a bubble at the NEW demand threshold/awareness. We could argue about speculators, but someone was taking that oil at X price month after month on the near-term contract. Gold is simply reflecting a massive increase in monetary expansion, and a growing awareness that printing, if it has not started already, will be happening to bridge the gap between available and willing lenders and that absolute mountain of treasuries that will come to market. Gold is just doing it's job as the anti-printing press and there is a lot of printing to come. Thus the <demand> for the driver of gold is robust and on an uptrend. Your comments on gold at a top have been noted. We will revisit this when gold is much, much higher. My call is gold is about to move higher now, and I like my odds for I believe in fundamentals and they are driving my side of that wager. As for the statements that all that monetary expansion will be mopped up, again history does not support that. And, for those that think that all that new money is just replacing <vaporized> capital and thus is not inflationary, I say, <neat trick>, for we now have a perpetual method to cure the world from all future malinvestment. We can just print more whenever bankers (or pick your favorite group of fxxx xxs), blow themselves up from greed and irresponsibility. Of course anyone who really thinks about this flawed premise knows it will not work and there is no such thing as something for nothing. At the very least all those who hold dollar reserves are automatically on the other side of the printing trade, and only confidence and the relative currency valuation game keeps the dollar afloat. GT TH