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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12730)	10/24/1997 3:51:00 PM
From: Mark	Respond to of 50167

Mohan, Something Wicked This Way Comes?: I don't consider your view so unorthodox and to anyone who says unequivocally that we won't have a stormy bit of a correction I say "A Fart on you Thomas Putman". I haven't seen one guest on WSW, NBR, etc that doesn't seem to indicate that a correction is possible if not likely. However, they are equally optimistic that any such correction will be short lived and that, as with 1987, people should really not react and it will blow over before you finish your golf game. I think the markets will continue upward but it will take weathering several of these paranoia-based storms while maintaining an orderly market (at or near 8000 - e.g. 7800-8200) for investors to realize that the end is not upon us and that the tech revolution driven productivity increases actually warrant some of the higher earnings multiples we see today but which the current market environment doesn't hesitate to punish. I agree that certain sectors/companies are overvalued especially those tech producing issues where nobody is really smart enough (yet) to know what they are worth. If we worked on aquisitions at IBM for instance, how the smell would we decide what a small co. with interesting tech was worth? Can't follow the milestone/royalty formula that Pharmaceuticals use to mitigate those risks because everyone wants a buyout these days and can demand it. Investors in stocks have the same difficulty and can be easily convinced that what was valuable yesterday is somehow less valuable today without any underlying changes. Thanks for your views and analysis which I think are valuable for all, mark

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12730)	10/24/1997 4:21:00 PM
From: Al Serrao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Mohan, I have felt for over a year that bonds were undervalued and a great buy but for different reasons. Clearly real rates of return on the LB have rarely been this high and it would be just a matter of time before the market would react and drive yields lower in the face of declining deficifts, continuing disinflation, and surprise surprise a relentlessly higher dollar. I enjoy your posts, but I fail to understand how a super rally in bonds takes away from stocks? Doesn't lower interest rates help and continue to support the market for obvious reasons. If bonds and stocks disengage or move their seperate ways' why would this be anything more than just a short term blip on the screen? The only time when they went their way for any extened period was the 1930's which was the deflation. Is that where you beleive we're headed now?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12730)	10/24/1997 5:00:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Mohan- I think this market will not be able to ignore the drop of Techs far too long- mind you TXN or AMAT or WDC are today at discount to the multiple of SP- we have seen TECHs being slaughtered but SP did not budge from 948- now if SOX can come back up from 308 and NASDAQ from down 40 to 20 I think market today sold off worried about ASEAN crisis- but as a whole we need to be nimble and see that my put premiums on 840's do not evaporate on Monday, I think as Mark puts it right pendulam has swung but take the big one out of picture- there is nothing left in most of these stocks for market to sell- APM at 25 making 60 cent a quarter doens not have much of a room niether do TXN or INTC or IBM based on 98 earnings the multiples have even dropped further but one can only buy huge protection and hope that when reversal comes we may be able to save our premiums.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12730)	10/24/1997 5:24:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Mohan- The last time btw May June July we had Tech at 306- the major resistance and major support- NASDAQ was at 1215 and S&P was at 753- if these levels of S&P and NASDAQ had to break today was the day- so in your opinion the break has to be nearly of 500 points on Nasdaq and nearly 200 points on SP to be equivalent to a drop of what SOX has gone through already- this drop will only come on back of semis dropping to 225 - I agree today was a bad day but to expect that valuations like SOX will appear all over is rich. In my opinion I agree a possilbity of test of previous lows and RSI of SOX at 14 is only 4 away from 10 the lowest achieved in July 1996.