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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (38490)	2/18/2009 3:12:14 PM
From: kapex	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 207879

I dunno folks, chief, I mean, this kinda feels like the gold market coming off the lows. I asked you in Nov if it looked like it might have been a 4th wave triangle (of wave C) at the time and you replied that one count was as good as the next. You were right of course when da boyz are in charge but it seems like that right now in the market. Bear with me for a minute. Later on this triangle in gold did thrust down and failed (if it was a 4th of the C wave)at 700 and that might be why gold is showing the resiliency that it has. That and like you said, it's been in an 18 year bear market. But I keep seeing folks trying to guage sentiment in some manner and I don't think we are reading it right. Like was said yesterday, the guys who make up some of these polls that constitute the bulls and bears may be in a completely different situation than what they are saying they are because it's trading positions. Right now, I see da boyz making things look as dire (if you will) looking as possible. And as you have said a dozen+ times, they want to clear the decks for the specialists. As a contrarian, I like to look at the things that folks are not looking at. By that I mean this, many folks try to look at contrary stuff but they wouldn't know how to be contrary if it hit em in the face. snort I don't mean that to be aloof but rather, if contrary investing was easy, it wouldn't work, or would evolve into something more esoteric that is say, a derivative of that which all are looking at and worthless unless you have reconfigured how you measure it. Folks that are still looking for some sort of washout are not seeing that it is now, or already has happened, and that if we do fall from here, now, well then by God that's it and it's all over for the market. The last few idiots would sell in a panic and the public would just stand pat. The smart money would be buying the break from here big time! But it wouldn't be, IMO, from the sources that they are getting their sentiment measures from. Bear markets end with a whimper and right now it sure seems awful quite. Cep't for the noise from all the crap going on that makes things look like they are about fall off a cliff. IMO, a total requirement for there to be a valid sentiment bottom. Just sharing my thoughts. Cheers!