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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33550)	2/19/2009 2:19:56 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

Wow, talk about controversial. Sorry, but this totally smacks of desperation and loss in belief that value investing works (a mood that overall is starting to permeate this thread, but that's another discussion). You are now arguing short side like the longs argued in the Internet bubble: - BRK is a short because it is relatively expensive compared to other companies. (and MSFT was a long since it was relatively cheap compared to AMZN... ). - BRK is is a short even though it is trading at 5 year lows (and AMZN was a long even it was trading at 5 year highs). - BRK is a short even though it is the only (?) company still with AAA ratings, practically no debt, no exposure to toxic anything, best of breed businesses, still tons of cash, Buffett at the helm, sweetheart debt deals from top companies, and so on and so on. And sure the reason why it will fall is macroeconomic. Which is something that everyone now is an expert in. Pleaaaaaase. I hear another macro comment on this thread, I am going to puke. Nobody knows macro future. Nobody. Not Roubini, not Soros, not Rogers, not Buffett, not Paul Senior. At least Buffett does not pretend to know it, while everyone else in this list does. There is only one reason to short BRK - if you believe that Buffett will die before the crisis is over. In this case, yeah, you are right, it would fall to $2000 or perhaps even lower. Now, you may be right that BRK is not a good long, but this does not automatically make it a short. I'll get back to you regarding whether it is a good long in my opinion, but this make take some time. ;)

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33550)	2/19/2009 2:30:47 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

Just to play devils advocate and i have no axe to grind here. It seems to me that you have the greatest capital allocater ever managing your money if you will, who will probably have a huge war chest to invest when the "time is right". what is that worth? You are automatically assuming that the historic returns will equal the future returns. I doubt that will be the case. Unfortunately the global economy for investors seems like a large minefield for now. banks which were considered safe investments have lost 90% of their value. I see AIG which we discussed whether it was a value or not in the $20-50 range now trades for $.68. This was one of the largest companies in the world a year ago.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33550)	2/19/2009 10:39:44 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

re BRKb- why would I care what WEB (or his subordinates) sold at higher prices? I do not see a compelling reason to buy BRKb here either.I can buy everything WEB has bought so far way cheaper. He does have a knack on finding good management and best in class companies. His timing is not better than that of any of us however, as the recent past has shown. In this market, timing is very important. So you can count me in as somebody who is not a value investor any more. My game is to play the volatility of the market with a value twist. I try to buy stuff that is solid and not going to be tanked by the awful economy that is going to be with us for 1-2 years or more. I sell in any substantial rally- period. I am also going to look more at the macro picture going forward to determine sector allocations. In that sense I am going to astray from the pure value approach as well.That's the plan I have started to implement in October.