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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (46644)	2/20/2009 3:40:02 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218631

China will remain a loyal shopper in Brazil through the darkest hours of the global economic downturn though it has already begun to fill its cart for less and a little more lightly as commodity prices slump Growing China to stay hungry for Brazil's resources 02.20.09, 10:22 AM EST BRAZIL-CHINA/TRADE (ANALYSIS):ANALYSIS-Growing China to stay hungry for Brazil's resources By Peter Murphy SAO PAULO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - China will remain a loyal shopper in Brazil through the darkest hours of the global economic downturn though it has already begun to fill its cart for less and a little more lightly as commodity prices slump. Coinciding strong economic growth in the two nations this decade has brought them together as strategic trade partners. China's voracious consumption of iron ore and soybeans amid a commodities price spike helped Brazil boom in recent years. Awash with cash and with a growth target of 8 percent in 2009 while other large economies slide toward recession, China is already getting a better deal on soy after market prices plummeted. It is also geared up to bargain hard for cheaper iron ore, the main ingredient in steel. "I believe that this year, despite the crisis, we will still see, if not a rise, at least not a great drop in trade volume," said Charles Tang, Chairman of the Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce, which was founded in 1986. Bilateral trade soared to $36.4 billion in 2008 from $1.54 billion in 1999, according to data compiled by the Chamber of Commerce. "China will still need the strategic resources Brazil can provide," Tang said. In a bid to secure them, China's vice president, Xi Jinping, is in Brazil this week to conclude trade deals. He signed one on Thursday to buy up to 160,000 barrels of crude a day at market prices from state-run oil company Petrobras <PETR4.SA><PBR.N>. Weaker global demand for iron ore in late 2008 as the financial crisis worsened dealt a blow to Brazil's miners. China's purchases had nearly doubled to $4.9 billion from 2006-2008, Brazilian mining institute Ibram said. But China's steelmakers are now eating through what was just months ago a large stockpile of iron ore. Analysts expect they will soon begin restocking, especially when infrastructure projects outlined in its own stimulus package get underway. A Brazil-based analyst at Banif Securities said sea freight rates, which plummeted last September and have staged only a timid recovery, would encourage China to use more iron ore imports this year rather than supplies from its own mines. "Sales (in volume) from Brazil should be more or less stable. In volume terms there should not be a big drop," he said, estimating Brazil would provide about one fifth of China's iron ore in 2009. On Friday, Brazilian mining giant Vale <VALE5.SA><RIO.N> said it expects to ship a record 30 million tonnes of ore to China in the first quarter. But expected lower demand from other importers such as Europe could give Chinese steelmakers a strong hand in seeking price cuts for iron ore during annual negotiations with miners like Vale now taking place. SALE ON SOY Tang said China's reliance on Brazil's agricultural produce should increase because of land shortages in the Asian country. It recently opened its market to allow imports of Brazilian chicken. "China is continuing to buy (soy) like it has been before," said Andre Nassar, director of Brazil's institute for the study of international trade (Icone), adding volumes were stable but revenue was down. International soy prices are roughly half their peak rate reached last July of $16.53 per bushel. "Everything indicates there won't be a big impact for soy," he said, adding China was intensifying its pork and chicken industries for which soy is an important animal feed. Greater spending power and improving diets have been one of the main growth drivers for orange juice China, of which Brazil provides about 80 percent of world exports and generates around $2 billion, while traditional buyers consume less. Emerging populous nations Brazil, Russia, India and China, collectively known by their first letter as the "BRICs", have been using their greater economic might to trade more with each other and push for greater influence on the world stage. While Brazil's exports to China earn it billions of dollars, few of China's promises to invest in steel mills and infrastructure in the South American country have materialized. China says its plans got bogged down in Brazilian red tape. Nonetheless, Tang said Chinese firms were still looking to open a shipyard to construct oil rigs and vessels to serve Brazil's expanding offshore oil production. Brazil found potentially huge reserves deep under the ocean bed in 2007. (Editing by Todd Benson and John Picinich)

To: carranza2 who wrote (46644)	2/20/2009 7:13:44 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218631

gold is too cheap my wife booked me an invitation by local and serious tycoon's commander-in-chief wife, an ex lawyer, multiple public companies, for lunch this coming wednesday the subject matter is, "what about gold?" in the mean time, my final tranche of physical platinum is now confirmed, and the door closed on the alpine cave of goodness, never ever to deliver to hk again the reason given for termination of physically deliverable trade was a very strange one indeed, and one which makes me doubly comfortable on having physical w/i grabbing distance

To: carranza2 who wrote (46644)	2/21/2009 3:19:30 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218631

per richard russell, looks like we have another 90% to fallllllllll Did the recent great bull market start at Dow 776.92 in 1982 or Dow 759.13 in 1980? I picked 776.92 in 1982 as the start of the bull market. The bull market ended in October 2007 at Dow 14164.53. Turning to the 50% Principle, the halfway level of the entire bull market of 1982 to 2007 is 7470. Yesterday the Dow closed at 7466, 4 points below the halfway level. On this basis, the 50% Principle has turned bearish. According to the 50% Principle, if the Dow closes below the halfway level of the preceding major advance, the Dow can decline towards and even test the level from which the advance started. To do that, the Dow would ultimately have to test the area from which the bull market started -- that area was 776.92.