To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (18968 ) 10/25/1997 2:17:00 AM From: bigpicture Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
for all it's worth...if you look back 60 years or so, the telephone (after being in existence for a while ultimatly wouldn't penitrate 35% of the population for 35 years after it's release..if you consider that the internet was not really known commercially till 1994 understand that it is already used (only 3 years latter) by more than 35% of the population...The point i'm making (just my opinion) is that it took one hundred years to build the infrastructure for voice traffic...(not meant to handle all this data traffic (internet, video conf., distance learning, extranets..etc...)...Sidgmore of UU-net (the largest ISP) says it best..."WE'are seeing are data traffic double every 3 months"...I beleive we are in the infancy of a space that has years of growth ahead...your stock questions as I see them (just opinion) CSCO: ...the dominant player in data networking... plusses...own the market (market share...) John Chambers..proven to be an excellant leader, and visionary Big R&D budget Great exacution (have been able to sucessfully articulate the "one vendor end-to end solution)...Integrated past acqusitions well.. (they know what they need or lack and the take care of this) Best of breed products...it's not all marketing...lot's of industry reports speak very highly of their products (more often recently) ...They are in the sweet spot and firing on all cylanders... The negatives... The telecom guys see this space, and are starting to enter it... Companys that have dominated their own spaces for a while are now getting more agressive in csco's space..(i.e. - INTC, CPQ, Seamans, NT, LU...maybe one day even IBM)... Other traditional players are also trying to emulate csco's "size, clout, and end- to -end"..i.e. COMS...margins will go down as a result of the increased competitiveness in this space Standards battles could be a wildcard...(csco pushing it's propriatary tag switching...) lot of exsposure to the slower growth LAN space...(although I think this will eventually work in there favor, as massive upgrades in the LAN space reaccelerate growth in that space down the road...) Very big market cap...call me naive...but I never did understand how wall street values companys in terms of market cap, and multiple of sales.. (short term issue) - I beleive Tiger region might account for as much as 5% of revunue (not including Japan) (MY opinion - A core buy and HOLD stock, (I personally think it's rich here short term...) fantastic long term oppertunity. COMS - The possitives are- Great sinergy's from recent merger...an end too end powerhouse...great end user recognition (USRX) great network expsoure (COMS)...Very little product overlap Modem market share will probably help X2 to be a major factor prior to standaards being set...(this is a negative, standards are probably 1 and half years out...hurts everybody in this space... Product space being commoditized very quickly...(notice the 56k modems are already available for as little as $119?)...other large exsposure is the reliance on NIC'S ...also being comoditized rapidly (INTC has entered this space in recent months and wants to be more known in the networking space) potential inventory problems...(just my opinion but hardware in the chanel is VERY diffulcult to manage because prices fall so rapidly ....currency whows in asia pprobably don't help... ASND - "disclaimer" -I am long this stock (at higher prices and have bought more down here) ASND is typical of my investment style...a washed out stock suffering tempory issues, whose market space is sstill experiencing rapid growth... Pluses...ALthough not bullish TA seems (my guess) to show a stock that is all washed out on the downside and trying to build a base... LU buying Livingston is just a start...I think takeover by any of the below listed names is plausible.. LU BAY Seamans NT CPQ HWP IBM Fujitso...(Telecom and Datacom are converging) will be a big year in M&A in this space... Great history of wins with the 'bigger' ISP's in remote access...(me thinks the current-recent problems with TNT are short term..and TNT2 will be another "best of breed" product. after showing flat growth for a few quarters look's like the CSCC side of the business is starting back on it's growth track...(This was my origanal investment...didn't ussed to be a fan of ASND, but love the merged companys... Potentail negs.. ALso have asian exsposure (aprox 5%), Mergers of this size can be extremly diffacult (Wellfleet - Synoptics -BAY is great example) although I personally feel the merger is a great fit and the integration of the two companys is going great...(starting to see new products from both companys merging...CSCC LT's anad Desh stepped down right away...for better or worse Mory's running the show and everyone knows it.. GRF - getting no high visability wins to date...(inclusive of the WCOM anouncement which didn't give any numbers)... MAX TNT - We all know these issues...no need to rehash them Reliance upon UUNT for big percentage of trailing revenues... (think they're prettty much done for now building out there dial...) Potential wild cards... High visabilty wins for the GRF would be a bonus ball... As ATT's Worldnet service leaves BBN's backbone ATT's infrastructure issues could be good for ASND If an when the RBOC's "get it" they might make a major or noticeable push into the internet space... As a result of all the recent mergers of the ISP's...more CLECS, RBOCS,and TELCO's need the "data pipe" to compete... one last thought... there is always a bottleneck...sometimes in the backbone (i.e. - CSCC side of the biz, and sometimes in the dial-access biz -ASND side.. everytime I dial an AOL or MSN POP anad get a busy, it makes me smile...(p.s. - I personally use NETCOM...never a busy signal, although there backbone leaves something to be desired to me...) the deployment of networking equipment in the WAN space is in it's infancy....