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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (147833)	2/22/2009 10:58:55 AM
From: SwampDogg	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312563

one has to go by what the market says gold stocks are signalling the potential for an imminent collapse still the potential for a 'c' wave in gold down to $500-$600 i am not saying that this will happen and gold could blast to new highs but friday was not very bullish and the weekly chart of the $XAU and $HUI doesn't look good here (the stocks have failed twice in the past 3 days) the $HUI is a about 60% of what is was the last time gold was at this level and that is just plain negative don't like to see it but just calling it the way it is there are 3 scenarios for the gold market right now 1) New highs are coming right now and this is a leading diagonal 2) We get a pullback for a few weeks and a 20% correction in the stocks 3) New lows are coming i would give in 33/33/33 as far as what happens here which means that there is a 66% chance of a negative outcome in the ST and a 66% chance of a positive outcome in the IT. There is a 100% chance of a positive outcome in the LT if gold does go down to the $500-$600 level it would point to a much longer bull market and a stronger one in gold. if gold breaks higher now the party will be over within 18 months