Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (33621)	2/22/2009 8:35:39 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79169

Dale -re fundamentals The problem is not with the formula, it is with input variables. What seems to happen is that my input variables are shown to be wrong by significant amounts faster than at any given time in my investment carrier before. Just to name one example I thought a while ago that NG in the US would pretty much have a floor at 5-6$/mcfe, now I am seeing prices of 4$. Business revenues that I though could go down 10-15% tops are shown to go down 25-30%. The list goes on and on. For example right now I am looking into aircraft industry. So far earnings estimates are looking pretty decent into Y2010 due to the good backlog at Airbus and Boeing. But will these planes delivered as planned? Airline traffic is down and I am hearing that there are a lot of cancellation with certain airplane types. if this is going to continue, I think that most manufacturers of airlines and parts (BA,UTX, HON, GE) are not going to make their projected numbers.