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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (186077)2/23/2009 7:23:32 PM
From: James HuttonRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
"oh wait. everyone is expecting a rally <ng>"

AAII bullish/bearish readings are finally starting to get toward extreme levels.

Sentiment Survey Results

Results as of February 19, 2009 This week’s survey results saw bullish sentiment fall to 21.64%, below its long-term average of 39.0%. Neutral sentiment fell to 21.64%, below the long-term average of 31.3%. And bearish sentiment rose to 56.72%, above the long-term average of 29.8%.

Bullish 21.64%
Neutral 21.64%
Bearish 56.72%

Long-Term Average and Extreme Values

Bullish:
Average: 39.0%, Max: 75.0% (1/6/2000), Min: 12.0% (11/16/1990)
Neutral:
Average: 31.3%, Max: 62.0% (6/3/1988), Min: 8.0% (12/14/2000)
Bearish:
Average: 29.8%, Max: 67.0% (10/19/1990), Min: 6.0% (8/21/1987



To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (186077)2/23/2009 7:32:57 PM
From: nextrade!Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Some are arguing that the fair value of the S&P 500 should be somewhere around 440 if we take a multiple of 15 which would be in line with historical P/E ratios. That is a stunning number but makes sense. That means the S&P would need to fall an additional 330 points, a drop of 42% from where we are currently at. That is hard to imagine yet the math points us in that direction.

mybudget360.com


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