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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (101620)	2/23/2009 9:53:54 PM
From: orkrious	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

It's just one day. Today was noise. How about the miners have had a hell of a move? They don't go up hugely every day no matter what the news is.

To: TH who wrote (101620)	2/23/2009 10:04:51 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"On a day when we discover the government is going to probably own 40% of Citi, gold can't take four digits. I suspect that most here get calls from friends looking for help with the market. I'm very selective now that I've wised up, but I still help a handful of people. Today I got a call from a Doctor I help out and he wanted to know why the hell miners are so low with POG near a grand. Here is what I told him. Consider it a starting point for the discussion and tear it up and/or add your own ideas. 1. Hedge fund monkeys went BOOM. There are just fewer players in the game with cash or credit. The monkeys are going out of business and like it or not, the monkeys helped make HUI 500 happen. 2. The general market is down and gold miners are stocks first, and "golden" second. So, market down, margin called, and everything gets sold. 3. Gold miners are not exactly making earnings records. Quarter after quarter we expect the big profits from that low cost-high metal equation. Never seems to happen. Impairments, purchases, and whatever, we just never seem to get the blowout earnings we expect. 4. It could be the start of a new age for equities and that could mean single digits P/E's. Most miners have lofty P/Es to begin with, so maybe last years big run was the high in the miners and now they are going to have to earn it. And maybe even if they get the performance on the earnings up, the street won't be inclined to push the P/E because of course tomorrow everyone thinks the POG will shed 200 points. 5. Maybe the miners have it right and POG is going to sell-off. I dunno, but the POG/Miner ratio is way out of wack relative to last year and the past few years. Something has got to give and just can't see POG selling off in any significant way. GT TH" pretty confusing...imo cots are probably right and we will get a gold sell-off, maybe not too deep tho considering that this financial crisis has to be the perfect impetus for gold if there ever was one. gold stocks are cheap, but probably for a reason...ie, some of them like GG still cant make more than 10C a share in quarterly earnings, and some really cant get funded..gbg today announced they have to sell shares to raise money, apparently back-tracking from their statement about 10 days ago that bank funding for their SA project was to have preliminary signing by end of month. if the market tanks, which looks like it could any day now, if it isnt already, maybe all stocks go down...or maybe like in 1973-4 gold stocks rally in face of declining market. maybe better to buy some short funds like sds and srs for now...even if the gold stocks rally counter to stock market sell-off, the short etfs may do as well or better. some balance might be good idea...ie, short term treasuries, gold bullion, gold stocks, and short etfs...at least that is what i am doing... robin