Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (2108)	2/24/2009 6:20:38 PM
From: SwampDogg	1 Recommendation Respond to of 3209

This bear looks be so big that it needs a 4-6 weeks move higher to test the 200 day average before moving down to the 1994 levels. Depending on the market this looks to perhaps be the beginning of a 5 wave 'c' move that will suck money back into the market before a Wave 5 down of the larger "C" to $SPX 300-500. Gold has decoupled and that is not a bad thing. Perhaps a wave 2 of smaller degree while the general market does its thing higher. Pullback target of $875-$930. Was looking at the idea of gold finishing a 'b' here with a target of $600ish before new highs but the decoupling from the general market may rule this out. A leader and like many things may test out 200 day or Wave A/1 low of early '08. I will sell that level and go short stockcharts.com $SPX target of Jan high or 200 day before collapse stockcharts.com looks like #2 Message 25433971 This may be the best chart out there right now. Weekly shows clear A-E consolidation (Wave 4?) off the highs with one more low before an huge spike (implying market collapse in mid to late '09 stockcharts.com So once again the bears will get creamed just in time to setup the best short since 1930. $SPX puts should be mighty cheap by mid April

To: AllansAlias who wrote (2108)	3/1/2009 3:25:37 PM
From: chris714	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

What do you think about the possibility that Wave 3 did not terminate on Nov. 21 and that the rally from Nov 21 was a minor wave 4....with Wave 3 continuing lower? Did the move from Nov 21 move enough in price or time to qualify as a major Wave 4?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (2108)	3/12/2009 11:35:49 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

My thoughts are turning increasingly toward the idea that the lows we've just made, or are about to make, are really only the end of the "Big 3", and any upward correction is likely only "Big 4". (Note, chart is a few days old but still my count) When all else fails, hold your nose and count Sox: Looks like all the action since the November lows might be the 4 there, which would imply that it leads us downward into capitulation and wave 5. `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (2108)	4/14/2009 8:41:40 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

I was thinking on the ride home today that this could be quite possibly the best setup we've seen in at least six months. In many places, we have a choppy, overlapping potential ending diagonal to end a move that screams "short covering rally". It has brought all the indices into resistance from the trendlines that have controlled the entire bear. While the 25 trading days straight up could be the start of a longer correction of the whole bear to date, the collapse in put-call since November argues that the entire half-year of chop is just one big irregular flat. It would also explain what looked to be three waves down into the March low. This structure can be seen in a great many stocks and indices, including the emerging markets. In places like India, I see three waves down to November, then three waves back up, which could be setting up a bull-killer deflationary impulse. While I was reluctant to be very short following the November lows, knowing that a multi-month correction was a high probability, we now have a corrective looking structure off those lows that has cleared a bunch of short profits and worked off the oversold from the November bottom. This leg could very well extend higher, but even if it does, we may get a decent pullback here to the base of the wedge first. Risk/reward is excellent; the stops are very well defined. It seems like the best risk/reward setup of the past several months, right at this very moment. What do you think? `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (2108)	4/22/2009 4:50:28 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

Never noticed before today, but the entire interest rate surge out of the 1940s, followed by the dump through the 1980s, 90s, and 2000s, looks like one great big impulse, followed by a three wave correction: `BC