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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (5268)	2/24/2009 8:40:58 PM
From: Brumar89	Respond to of 86355

Actually, Brumar, in the tech world that is exactly how things work. I realize that. New advancements regularly replace yesterday's ... that and the difficulty in figuring out which out of hundreds or thousands of companies will be winners, makes tech investing very difficult. It's hard to believe that oil and coal can be put out of business by new, unproven-at-scale tech like solar or other renewables, especially since renewables cost more than oil and coal right now. I can understand your doubt. I think such a thing could happen. It would just take a big breakthrough in some technology. Its entirely possible some breakthrough in some new tech area could obsolesce not only oil and coal but also solar and wind. However, I've seen so many many examples of exactly this kind of thing in my life that I have to say I think it is ultimately inevitable that the world will move away from oil. In the long run, certainly. Fossil fuels, while extensive, are finite. Many people right now are saying that the way it will happen is that the commodity will become so expensive through scarcity that renewables will become cost competitive, will flourish, and eventually we'll move away from oil. Seems reasonable. I will say though that the probability is very high it will happen in my lifetime. Before I die, I will be able to say that the US only gets a minority of their energy supply from oil and coal, with the majority coming from things we consider renewables today. I plan to profit from this trend and have already made sizeable investments for the long term in rewewables. If I'm right, I will leave behind enough money that my grandkids will never have to work after I die. All that is dependent on your ability to pick winners from a vast array of alternative companies that will arise between now and that day whenever it arrives. Good luck.