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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (6374)	10/24/1997 7:35:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

You have to remember that "all" the plagues have already visited CYMER. It doesn't have a downside, other than that in the of the entire market and life as we know it. The Semis have one saving grace. Marketing. The only thing that ever works is better, faster, cheaper, smaller, lighter and portablility. Do you think they will tread water again and get hit in the back of the head by their own board? No! They will make everything new again, better, smaller, lighter...etc... To do that they need CYMER Lasers now! Unlike us they saw this coming. They already ordered. Our market demand is not "IN PHASE" with the semi cycle. It could never be. If it were a situation with no growth, Cymer would then have a down side during the semi sales upside. However, in a growth situation, as Cymers DUV applications face, they have to be able to grow and supply around the clock while the Semi fabs catch up to the technology. We have a tendency to beleive that of which we imagine and test is new. I suppose it is. Yet, as far as industrial applications are concerned we are sometimes a generation behind. It is my bet that CYMER five times it's size will not be able to keep up to the demand. About Semi fabs. Do any of you actually think they will sit on their billions of dollars waiting for the market to turn. They give two shits about their stock price, unless they are pondering a stock swap take-over. They have CYMI to turn to.....or sink with their money belts. Beware of those with other fallen stocks. Those with bad earning trying to draw analogies between their wreck and Cymer's. Cymi, had lost it's price to rumor and manipulation. The others I have seen quoted have had bad, earnings, bad management and/or a FAD product. There are to certain things....{without a total market crash :)! } Cymer will need to expand due to market demand....! The "Snoring doll" Ernie...will have a big quarter! Bruce

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (6374)	10/24/1997 8:36:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Tim, It has been typical of the book to bill to decrease from July through September, look back at prior years data on a monthly basis. July through September are typically the slowest months and then begin to pick up again in November through March. Cymer's book is 1.29. This has been slightly increasing sequentially, not decreasing. The semis have not had "crappy"earnings. Many have just had some of the best quarters in their history. What is out of context was the analysts earnings estimates. Analysts are known to post unrealistic over estimations and under estimations. If I were an analyst and I was short a particular stock, I'd post an estimate which clearly could not be met. When the company didn't make the unrealistic estimate, the stock goes down. I've won. It goes on. I can name several examples. Kurlak's estimates for Intel is an example. We can have semis growing at a compounded rate of 18% a year, yet estimates show 22%, they grow at 18%, among the strongest growth sectors in the market, and people say they are not growing as fast as predicted and they sell off. Companies supposedly guide analysts on earnings. But, in fact, they work hand in hand. Keep the institutions happy and no one knows the difference. Its a club. I challenge you to name one product, or one being designed, which doesn't now require a chip which didn't require such just two years ago. Even toilets require "chips" for automatic flushing. Semis will create the demand for more chips. I'd look for at least two, if not more, analysts next week to either upgrade Cymer to a buy or reiterate Cymer as a buy. If they're honest, they'll do it.