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To: Dom B. who wrote (37558)	10/25/1997 6:17:00 AM
From: SPEEDRACER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hello DOM, I don't know if you remember me but I was really given hell when I first came on this board short at 101..... You guys really didn't want to hear it. Some were even hostile. To refresh your memory as to why I was bearish...... To: +robert w fain (29458 ) From: +SPEEDRACER Saturday, Aug 16 1997 2:51AM EST Reply #29480 of 37593 Robert I will explain dow 5400, Please remember that My ego is not in being right, but in making $$$. When you are done reading this, you will understand why I am really short....I do a lot of technical analysis . I also chart market cycles.. The markets of 1929, 1987, and 1997 are remarkably alike. So much so that we are repeating it again... In 29, the market rallied to it's high begining 2 yrs and 11 months earlier. The final "last gasp rally took 3 months and 10 days and went up 30% from May 28 to Sept 7.. In 87 the market rally leading into it's high on Aug 25,1987 began 3 yrs and 4 months earlier. Also, the last" Gasp" rally took 3 months and 5 days and was up 22% from may 20 to Aug 25,1987. In 97 market, the rally leading into the high of 8299 on Aug 7 began on May 4 1994 from 3520 and lasted 3 years and 4 months. The "last gasp rally" began on may 14 1987 and ended Aug 7 1997 lasting 3 months and 21 days rallying 31%. From the high to the Oct low in 1929 and1987 the market fell 44% and 35 % respectively. The 87 selloff stopped right at the August 1 1986 closing low of at 1763 which was the low on Oct 19 1987 exactly 1 yr and 2 months and 18 days earlier. Which incedently is also a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the whole move from 1086 to 2722......... In 1997 , taking the average amount of time it took the 29 and 87 maerkets to collapse ( 3 months and 12 days) that would project a low on October 20 1997, which incedentaly is a Monday after an expiration of options, just like Oct 19 was in 1987. Also a 61.8% retracement of the whole 3 year 4 month move takes you back to 5345 .Well, the closing low exactly 1 yr and 2 months and 16 days earlier on July 16, 1996 was 5358.. Or if you want to be perfect as to the 5345 that was theclosing low on July 24 1996. Which also.... 5345 is exactly a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A few last words.... Every market year that ends in a 7... 97,87,77,67 etc historically tends to have a decline .Many times of great proportion between the July high and the Oct low. In 87 it was 29%, in 77 11%, 67 only 1 %, 57 21%, 47 6%, 37 37% , 17 22%. 07 31%, 1887 11%, 1867 4%, 1857 46%, and so on........Also, there have only been 24 times in history when the market has advanced 50% or more without a correction... of these 24 times the longest ones were 2 yrs 11 months in 1929. 3 yrs and 6 months in 1949. 3 yrs and 3 months in 1966. 3 yrs and 1 month in 1987, and 3 yrs and 3 months in 1994 . And last and most important the one that I say ended on Aug 7, 1997 having lasted 3 yrs and 4 months..... With all of these cycle statistics, add in "this time is different" statements, the way everyone is saying they are not worried...... I say 5400 and I am very short. We may rally back above 8000 I can't say for sure, but the big decline is underway because this time is not different!!!!!!! Human emotions haven't changed since the beginning of time and it is human emotions that run the financial markets. Unless this plans on changing anytime soon, the markets will always repeat themselves in some kind of cyclical pattern... Hope that can substantiate my rationale of 5400 Best of luck to all traders out there. For the bulls, the best advice is to take the next 3 months off. Sometimes a 5% return in a money market beats a 30 % decline. OK, maybe I will be off by a week or two, but the scenario is unfolding as expected. Don't catch this falling knife!!!!! SPEEDY==============================================================