Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (12023)	2/25/2009 4:46:47 PM
From: Doo	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John, I want you to know that the comments you note around mid-December on this board, along with other things I watch, helped me to sell every treasury held in every account I'm involved in within days of December 18. I'm very grateful for all the contributions made to this board. The difficulty since mid-December, of course, has been trying to figure out where to put the proceeds of those treasuries. Can't say I've found any place that allows me to sleep at night, peacefully. Thanks for your board. It's one of my favorites, even if I'm the only with a comfort level with the infamous Rahm. ;) Jeff

To: John Pitera who wrote (12023)	2/25/2009 5:30:14 PM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Respond to of 33421

I told colleagues in 2003 the Treasury bond cycle would likely bottom in yield in 2009. I made sure my employees who had houses were aware of the window of opportunity to re-finance their homes at very low conventional rates in the spring 2003. The target range I had for the lows in 2009 was 3% closing yield with a possible spike low of 2.4%. Not bad for a 5-year forecast. I have documentation of my calls on my IHUB thread if anyone wanted to see it. I sure got some stupid looks when I was talking that smack back then. I'm not quite on the Bill Gross wagon right now. Historically debt bubbles popping keep yields low for a minimum of 10-years and an average of 15-years. You could look at Japan for a recent example, as it took them over a decade after their bubble popped to drop to zero interest rates. I'm watching to see how the TNX handles the 3.25% area before passing judgement. I think it could still trade in a range this year from 2.5% to 3.25%.